Book Description
Swing trading is gaining popularity as a powerful method to increase returns—and potentially lower risks—by profiting from short-term price moves. The Master Swing Trader explains how traders can use technical analysis, charting, and market sentiment to make trades that hold through price fluctuations and noise with wider stops. This complete, practical guide to making profitable short-term trades—based on the author’s popular “Mastering the Trade” online course—uses dozens of charts and graphs to illustrate proven swing trading concepts and strategies. Experienced day, position, and online traders will benefit immediately from: - The 7 Bells – unique tools to uncover promising short-term prospects - Techniques to profit from low-risk short sales - The 4 repeating cycles for perfectly timed trades
Download Description
The Master Swing Trader explains how traders can use technical analysis, charting, and market sentiment to make trades that hold through price fluctuations and noise with wider stops.
Customer Reviews:
A good, if hard to read, trading book.......2007-07-28
I felt the need to post a review because it seems to me most reviewers think the only options for rating a product are 1 a 5. To preface: I'm a college student who has recently been looking into technical analysis. This book was recommended to me by a friend. I don't claim to be an expert in trading.
First of all, I have to agree, this book is incredibly hard to read. The author comes off as an over-verbose pretentious individual.
Difficulty aside, this book gives you an incredible wealth of information on trading. I couldn't disagree more with a past reviewer who claims that this book is marketed as a "Get rich quick". I feel this book is quite the opposite. It gives you a very practical overview of many of the popular indicators and TA techniques(as opposed to say, the introductory explanation as offered in Murphy's) as well as lots of general tips to aspiring swing traders. It then goes on to outline some very thoroughly defined trading systems and all the knowledge needed to execute them.
This book is long and to be honest, painfully boring sometimes. However if you are looking to increase your knowledge of trading, I feel this is a book that should definitely be considered. Look elsewhere if you want a quick weekend read.
No substance.......2007-04-18
There are some good principles in the book, but its way to easy to get lost in all of the repetition and blandness. The section on fibonocci retracements was useful and seems to work well for me in practice; however, I didn't get much else from the book.
One of the Best.......2006-11-12
I had read a lot of reviews over this book before deciding to purchase it. The reviews--more than any trading book out there, at the time--pretty much had the vote split between people who absolutely hated it and those who absolutely loved it. The deciding factor that lead to my purchase was the author (a professional trader of many years) of another book who spoke highly of "The Master Swing Trader"'s author, and the work he had done in writing this piece.
This is not a fluff book to hook you into trading. This book is geared towards those few individuals out there who wish to make trading a profession, rather than a passing fancy. I read a large number of those fluff books during my decision to become a professional day trader. I wish I had picked up this book first, because it goes into all the techniques I now use today in order to be successful. Not only does this book discuss the various trading techniques and their set-ups, along with all so important exit strategies, but more importantly it discusses why price moves in certain directions, why it jumps forth, why it breaks down--basically, it offers rare insights into the psyche of the trading crowd that is the market (all those traders out there who are competing against you).
The writing style has been berated as too 'text-book' in presentation, but I beg to differ. It flows with an elegant prose that distinguishes the author not only as a true trader, but also as a true writer who can hook those who wish to relate to the generously offered insights. Only those who have been through the grueling battles in actual trading scenarios and who hunger to know why things went right or why they went wrong, will appreciate this work and set it up on their bookshelf next to the other trading classics.
If you are used to simplistic writing such as can be found on any dimestore bookshelf, with the likes of Stephen King, this elevated work may certainly be beyond your grasp. If, however, you can digest proper grammer and get past poetic prose, this book will open a window rarely seen before. It is probably one of the best all around trading books ever written.
Good luck to those aspiring traders who hunger to understand market sentiment.
WOW...just wow.......2006-11-09
What a horrible book. The writing style of the author is horrendous! Impossible to follow or even comprehend what he is trying to teach. All the information in this book is readily available online. Save your money and buy "Mastering the trade" by Scott instead.
Solid Technical Trading Book.......2006-09-24
First, I agree that the author needs to learn how to write properly. Some of his thoughts are all over the place, and need some work. His editor must have been a complete moron. Nevertheless, after going through the material, I felt the book had some good trading ideas to offer, if your familiar with technical analysis. The seven bells are a useful place to start looking for trading setups, and are the most valuable part of this book. With that said, John Carter's Mastering The Trade is much, much better if you had to only buy one book. If the author edits his writing a little bit better, stops trying to be like Shakespeare (go write fiction if you want to do this big guy), his book would be much improved. It would also be useful to see some stats on how his 7 bells do in actual trading. He sometimes makes comments like an 65-80% of the time it will work... well I could tell you the Tooth Fairy is real, too, but show me some evidence!
Book Description
Today’s managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until it’s too late. Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting model—based on just a few key economic indicators—for identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly. A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didn’t see the downturn coming Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan
Customer Reviews:
Take bashing by the theorists wth a grain of salt.......2007-07-22
Another reviewer remarked that this book did not pass the Statistics 101 test. It is true that Ellis provides no supporting data for his ideas.
However, in some of my own work I did find considerable support for one important aspect of the Ellis approach: his suggestion that readers ignore quarterly or monthly percent changes and focus instead on year over year changes.
I, too, look at data year over year. I did not work with the exact same data sets Ellis discusses, but among the sets I did use, I noticed that multi-factor models of stock, bond and commodity returns against economic series showed t-scores below 1.00 when the variables were expressed as monthly returns. The theorists who bash Ellis here know that anything below 2.00 should be deemed suspect. But when, I re-cast the same sets of variables on a year-to-year basis, the t-scores jumped above 2.00, in fact, most were above 5.00 and some were above 10.00. That, or course, doesn't "prove" things (correlation vs. causation, curve fitting, yada yada yada). But it does add support to Ellis' claim that going year-to-year, which removes a lot of noise, can be very helpful.
It is not that simple.......2007-07-20
Don't get me wrong, the book has its merits.
It cuts through hundreds of economic indicators to select a few that make economic sense, telling a convincing story (but oversimplified). It will help mostly people with some market experience but lacking enough flying hours in macroeconomic (big-picture) thinking.
Pros :
1 - Acessible to people without an advanced degree, seeking a non-overly-technical introduction to both macroeconomics and its relation to stock market over time.
2 - Explain everything in a intuitive way
3 - Clearly tells his perspective of "how" and "why" things happen in economics, however some of the causalities he writes in the book may not be a consensus among economists or professional analysts.
Cons :
1 - Oversimplifies Inflation, foreign trade, budget deficits, the role of politics and expectations, global economics
2 - Overstates the importance of "charting" and lacks even the most basic "statistics 101" test.
3 - Macroeconomic history is a lot more complex than this book tries to show, with different monetary policy periods (keynesians in 60s and 70s - monetarists in 80s), different fiscal policies ("anomalies" in the book), productivity growth, shocks, demographics, wars, etc.
How stock market reacts to economic changes is also not that simple and may confuse even smart (but naive) guys who may think they understood a lot of macro-thinking after reading this book..
Bottom line : Book does not add too much to those already in the field. It's a very good introduction to an average investor seeking more macroeconomic knowledge (big-picture investing), but be *very careful* with oversimplification of economic history, hidden unstable relations between variables and not-that-simple theoretical subjects;
Ahead of the Curve.......2007-07-09
This book describe the how the market work in a very concise and simple way. Fantastic. Also maintain a site of market data update.
clear and sensible.......2007-06-06
I am only about 75% finished, but Mr. Ellis has a clear and simple writing style. His arguments are easy to follow and understand. His analysis and data treatment are compelling. I would recommend this book to a junior market analyst (or home investor who would like to understand market forecasting on year/decade time scales).
This book is definitely worth reading........2006-11-08
The author's approach toward economic data is very refreshing, in that he works quite hard at finding data that is predictive of stock market declines. Just the chapter on the "recession obsession", and why its bad for you makes the whole book worthwhile. It really put a lot of economic numbers in perspective, and made me realize it was actually possible to use economic numbers to your advantage.
I would also add that his writing style is very easy to follow. While it definitely helps if you have some background in economics, it is really not necessary.
Customer Reviews:
The best book I have ever read for predicting stock trends.......2005-11-04
Harry Dent really made a spectacular call back in 1993 in this book about the tremendous rise in the Dow during the 90's. He even predicted the slump in 2002-2003. His ideas of why this happened are presented in a simple theme that I found very intuitive. This book is a gem.
As for other books by Mr. Dent, he decided to contradict himself and go for very unrealistic goals for the Dow. Read this book and ONLY this book. Too late to make a killing on the stock market but still time to get out of stocks before the coming slump.
An Update.......2003-10-21
An update on this 1992 book "The Great Boom Ahead" from the perspective of 2003. First, Harry Dent is the eternal optimist and this earlier book correctly predicted the bull market of the 90s, while Robert Prechter, Martin Weiss, Nick Guarino, etc. were all wrong (in their timing at least) in predicting a downturn and depression to occur. But wait....the 2000-2002 downturn that cost so many investors money has at least opened a few eyes. And on pages 16, 18 and 34-36 of this book Harry Dent himself predicts the "Mother of all Depressions" to arrive around 2010, when the baby boomers' spending spree is over and they begin to retire. So the eternal optimist Harry Dent AGREES with the eternal pessimists and "doom-n-gloomers" about the inevitable outcome. They just disagree on the timing. So somewhere between 2004 - 2010 we can expect the largest downturn in U.S. history since 1929-1932. Enjoy the rest of the boom !!
A Real Eye Opener.......2002-01-05
Well supported by fact and Examples. Just wish I had read it years earler as I could have saved many $. I just couldn't put it down. Now I wouldn't be without it.
Highly Recommended!.......2001-10-03
Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s book is remarkable both for the overall accuracy of its predictions and for the simplistic model upon which those predictions depend. Written in 1993, it claims a niche within the general family of "trend" books written by the likes of Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt. The work anticipated our current era of super bullish markets, which it predicts will continue through 2007. The crystal ball drops a few items, given that a few years have passed since publication. Nonetheless, it offers a clear macroeconomic forecast and investment tool. If you sense the Fed just doesn't get the New Economy, this is the book for you. We [...] recommend this book to those seeking to understand the United States' era of record-breaking economic gains (and Japan's current hard times).
Where's Gen X or Silent Generation???.......2001-04-22
It was interesting book and having read it in 2001, I can see that many of his simple forecasts in the 90's are often on the mark. However there are many flaws that reflects his boomer navel-gazing. Why, I wonder, did Dent never chart the population surges of Silent Generation or Generation X? Moreover, where did all the immigrants disappeared to? Did they fell into the black hole after entering America? What about the inner-city blacks with unusally high crime-imprisoned rate? What about the endless resources from nanotech, biotech, and outer space? What about the cracking of welfare states now that communism is no longer a threat? I am sure that if Dent have charted all these information, the picture will look striking different.For example, many boomers prided themselves on being "largest generation". Based on simple birth rate, this is correct, but the picture is incomplete. The busters or Gen X may have smaller birth rate, but far higher immigrantion since the 60's, particulary after Vietnam War when many young people and children escaped dictatorships from Asia and Eastern Europe. Taken together, the Gen X is actually a far larger generation in simple numbers than so-called Boomers. At same time, it also have smaller capital to start business with and must struggle with crack-up of welfare state at same time. Yet, the Xers are more likely and more willing to start businesses and freelance than Boomers who must deal with downsizing from comfortable white and blue collar jobs that they were trained for all their lives.
So as far as I am concerned, there may be a big recession as the boomers retired (certainly, there will certainly be a death of welfare state by that time, and with it, the politics as the driving force of economy) but there will not be a great depression like or greater than that of the 1930's.
Book Description
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed?
The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.
In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.
Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.
Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?
Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
Download Description
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can't. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating the Business Cycle shows you how.
In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.
Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI's forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the "secret weapon" of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.
Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy's future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?
Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
"Would it help you decide when to leave a job, buy a house or step up your investing, if you had a good feel for when business was about to turn up (or down)? It sure will help me. This easy-to-read book tells you how the respected ECRI calls turning points, and how you can, too."
JANE BRYANT QUINN, NEWSWEEK COLUMNIST
"While 95% of economists failed to predict the start and end of the last recession, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji got both right. Beating the Business Cycle shows just how far the state of the art in cycle forecasting has advanced, and how investors can profit from it."
JON MARKMAN, AWARD-WINNING CNBC/MSN FINANCIAL COLUMNIST
"Read this jewel of a book and enter your own personal cyclical upswing."
JAMES GRANT, EDITOR, GRANT'S INTEREST RATE OBSERVER
Customer Reviews:
Marketing Propaganda.......2007-07-29
This book is nothing more than a marketing pamphlet for the author's services that cost an exorbitant amount of money. They repeatedly tell you how other forecasters and economists fail where they succeed. How other forecasters and economists continually suffer from "attribution bias" blaming their failures on uncontrollable events while taking full credit for their successes. However, they also attempt to explain away the failure of their indexes to successfully predict economic shifts, and therefore also suffer from attribution biases.
A lot to pay for an advertisement.......2006-09-06
You pay for a book, you expect some information. This book sings the praises of ECRI's numbers, then tells you how to buy them.
Disappointing.......2006-07-18
I bought this book thinking it will explain business cycles, what causes them, and how to forecast them. Unfortunately, the book does not do any of that. Instead the authors keep telling the reader again and again that they are the only people who know business cycles and the only way to understand and forecast business cycles is to subscribe to their website. Beside that, I learned very little from this book.
Although the authors are respected researcher in the area of business cycles, their book is a disappointment. It is more of an advertisement for the authors.
The best book I have seen on business cycles is:
"Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles", by Todd A. Knoop.
If you are interested in business cycles for the purpose of investing and asset management, I recommend the following books:
1. "The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation", by Pring.
2. "Using Economic Indicators to Improve Investment Analysis", by Tainer.
3. "Timing the Market", by Weir. (this book is not about business cycles, but a very good book for market timing)
A little less chest thumping please.......2006-04-01
I like this service, their method and the results but I was a bit put off by the amount of time spent in this little book talking about how well they've done in the past without enough discussion of the methods they employ. Their focus on the data without any philosophical axe to grind is admirable. Their method provides a fine tour of recent economic history. It would have been interesting to hear a discussion of that history in the context of examining that data.
Breath of fresh air.......2006-02-13
After getting sick and tired of all the hot air that economists spew, this book gave me some hope for the dismal science. Yes the authors discuss how their calls were correct, but I see this as a necessary part of the story being told, i.e., that through the prism of good leading indexes for growth, inflation and jobs, the wild and crazy path that the economy has taken over the past few years is understandable, and more importantly, not a surprise. I'm torn as I write this review as I might be better off as an investor if others did not read this book! Still, their advice on how to use the Weekly Leading Index to make better decisions is an important gift to society.
Customer Reviews:
Dull and boring historical accounts with no insight nor value at all.......2007-08-11
In the backcover it was promised:-
- Actionable lessons from 25 years of major events
- Predicting the market impact of everything from Fed statements to natural disasters
- Separating real information from noise, major "market mover" from trivia
Sorry that none of the above was kept. The author gave no actionable nor predictive insight at all. All the worse, the writing was so dull and boring. What upset me most were those "Trading Lessons" sections in the end of each chapter in which the author simply repeated the theme "everything is possible in the market and you dont know the possibility and impact of it". I dont need to read an over 300 page book to acknowledge so, do I? In short, dont waste your valuable time and money on this.
p.s. In case you want to read some good writing of historical events, "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation by Edward Chancellor" and "Eyewitness to Wall Street: 400 Years of Dreamers, Schemers, Busts and Booms by David Colbert" are much better alternatives.
Essential reading for anyone with an investment portfolio and especially for people that trade the news.......2007-01-28
Robert Webb's book Trading Catalysts is required reading for anyone that invests in the financial markets and especially for people that trade the news. The book is an excellent history of how major news events in the past have impacted the financial markets. At the same time it presents an excellent framework for managing the risks and exploiting the opportunities created by major news events. The global scope and multiple asset class perspective of this book is quite remarkable making it relevant for any reader regardless of what part of the world they are from and what they invest in. Trading Catalysts takes a very broad and complicated subject and makes it much easier for any reader to understand and capitalize on.
Invaluable market guide.......2006-12-13
This book is a gem. Trading catalysts provide money-making opportunities (or risks of devastating losses) that occur only rarely in one's career. The instant the next such event occurs, imagine having an established financial academic and trading authority at your shoulder, briefing you real time on exactly what happened in similar situations in the past, guiding you through the turbulent markets. Having this book at your trading desk is the next best thing. Thought provoking and likely to influence the way readers view risk and financial markets
Entertaining and informative.......2006-11-09
The book was both fun to read and instructive, an unusual combination. It is clearly written and well organized. Each section deals with real life events that were easy to relate to and key issues are clearly highlighted. Chapters typically pull everything together with a concluding "trading lesson". It is a great book those who what to get a better understanding of what drives market prices in very real terms. I recommend it for those who are involved in brokerage and related trading activities, managing their own portfolios, students or those who are just curious
too general to help my trading.......2006-11-01
This book is a collection of historical facts and author's observation of price reactions to news/events in treasury, commodity, and equity markets. As a trader, I was disappointed that the author didn't present any in-depth analysis or strategies for taking advantage of the many trading catalysts and the volatility they create. This book can be a good introductory material for people new to the market, but not for traders.
Book Description
Makes one of the most popular tools of market analysis available to a wider audience of traders and technical analysts
Pioneered by John Ehlers in the late 1970s, the MESA method of price pattern analysis uses powerful wave theory analysis techniques, originally developed for the field of electrical engineering, to measure market cycles. MESA systems are currently used by technical analysts the world over. Top brokerages lease them and supply their clients with MESA signals and charts. And MESA systems consistently have been rated #1 by Futures Truth, the consumer reports organization of the futures industry. In this highly anticipated Second Edition of his classic work, Ehlers updates his MESA theories and makes them more accessible to a wider trading audience. Completely revised, featuring five new chapters, this new edition incorporates Ehlers's digital signal processing research into MESA. It also includes EasyLanguage programming code that makes it extremely easy for traders to take the leap from theory to practice.
Customer Reviews:
Very Good Book.......2006-05-08
I was a disciple of John Ehlers' in the early 1990s when I bought
the MESA3 and Epoch analysis programs (both for DOS) and my trading abilities improved greatly. I use those two programs to this day with superlative results.
I cannot give a similarly positive review to his newer software offerings as I have not examined them personally and information provided to be by users who have indicated that their results were less than satisfactory.
Ehlers' books are, in a large sense, amplifications of the instruction manuals of these progams and set forth the basis on which to study trading according to his ideas and theories.
This book is an excellent read for both the casual and professional trader regardless of whether or not one actually uses his software. Ehlers is highly intelligent, extremely experienced, and the practical application of his theories is adequately explained herein.
This work ranks as yet another significant contribution to the arena of securities trading by the author.
Professor John W. Kercheval, III
Georgetown
Washington, DC
A Theorist with communication skills problems.......2002-12-21
This book is just plain horrible. I am a trader and a cyclical investor. I am also an engineer with Engineering Mechanics background, and very familiar with the complex math explained by Ehlers. But let me tell you, for people without any background in math this book is an absolute waste of time.
The most important thing that Ehlers should have focused, he simply forgot or ignored. The book fails to show real life examples with buy-sell signals using the indicator. It goes on and on along the theoretical lines of cycle analysis and it stays at that throughout the book.
It would have been much more entertaining to explain the indicator and show real life examples. But from my experience as a researcher and writer of research articles, people from this field tend to embelish and emphasize the theoretical size while completely ignoring the pure and simple aspects.
A simple cycle analysis done with moving average detrending as explained by Pring is much easier. Also, a simple look at the charts and the drawing of a simple cycle lines is all that it takes to show you the turning points.
Important Update of a Gem of a Book.......2002-03-29
The broad trading public has been slow to recognize John Ehlers work to apply cycles methodologies (from the sciences) to trading markets .... which is good for those of use who have discovered Ehlers' work with MESA (Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis).
The first edition of this book is still the clearest and most concise discussion of applying cycles theory to markets I've ever read. This new edition retains all of the content of the first edition, but updates it with a lot of new and additional information from Ehlers' recent research into cycles and his development of trading indicators and tools.
Many are familiar with the J.M. Hurst classic: "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing". Ehlers goes far beyond Hurst's pioneering work. Ehlers is an original thinker, applying new techniques and research using MESA to the market. Hurst was using a multi-million dollar mainframe in the 60's .... all of us have 10,000X more computer power sitting on our desktops than Hurst had .... Ehlers techniques can help the serious trader and investor turn all that "horsepower" loose on the market today, making it accessible to even us small traders.
Hurst was also constrained to using Fourier Analysis for cycles detection .... Ehlers' MESA overcomes the need of Fourier for long data spans to compute cyclic content.
If you're serious about the markets, this book needs to be part of your library .... along with Ehlers other book: "Rocket Science For Traders"
More Obtuse than the Average TA Book.......2000-06-25
Perhaps with time Ehlers writing improved but I found most of this book to be unclear - except the parts at the end about how to use the MESA cycles for trading. He has one idea, a ELI (Ehlers Leading Indicator), that sounds intriguing but darned if I can figure out how to calculate it based on his passing description of it. When he tries to explain phasors by "think of an engine" example, he only made me more confused. I really want to understand the mathematical ideas presented herein so I'll keep at it but I'm hoping I'll find a cycle writer with a style I can decipher better. Haven't read his later stuff yet though. Maybe he got alot more clear.
Book Description
The economy of any nation is an intricate web of relationships among the factors determining supply and demand--and everything that affects them, from inflation to taxes to the stock market. The study of business cycles attempts to explain why economies grow and contract, experiencing periods of prosperity and pain. Consistent with the popular conception of economics as the "dismal science," economists secretly long for recessions (periods of negative growth) and depressions (severe contractions), not because they enjoy their devastating impact on human welfare, but because these downturns serve as excellent laboratories for observing what happens when markets break down. Despite over two centuries of debate, no one has yet definitively unlocked the secrets of economic downturns and how they might be prevented. In Recessions and Depressions Todd Knoop traces the evolution of business cycle theory, from the "classical" model, which preceded the Great Depression, through the ground-breaking ideas of John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and their followers. He examines the strengths and limitations of each approach, in terms of explaining the impact of such factors as government policy, money supply, labor productivity, and wages. In the process, he presents an accessible introduction to what makes the economy tick, and offers new insights into understanding such historic events as the Great Depression, as well as more recent ones, such as the Asian meltdown in the 1990s, the financial crises in Latin America, and the U.S. recession of 2001, from which the United States is still recovering. Knoop reminds us that economists' track record in forecasting business cycles leaves much to be desired, and the quest to fully understand what causes economic downturns--and their effects on individuals and families--continues.
Customer Reviews:
Excellent .......2007-09-14
This is by far the best book I have seen on business cycles. Other books are either too handwavy or too abstract and dry. This book is very precise and comprehensive and at the same time very readable and accessible. It is an excellent blend of theory and real world.
The book explains many theories of business cycles. Some of these theories are widely known, while some I have not seen else where. But all are explained very well.
The book also shows how these theories apply to real world events like the Great Depression, the East Asian crisis, the Argentina crisis, and the Japanese depression. All are excellent case studies.
good overview.......2005-01-11
does a good job of explaining in simple terms the effects different financial and economic organizations and markets have on one another. if you've ever been laid off or lost money in the stock market (as i have), this book can help you place your personal loss in the broader context and perhaps anticipate things so that you're better prepared in the future.
Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting..
With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Average customer rating:
- Forceasting Futures prices
- Just another system
|
Analyzing and Forecasting Futures Prices: A Guide for Hedgers, Speculators, and Traders (Wiley Finance)
Anthony F. Herbst
Manufacturer: John Wiley & Sons Inc
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0471533122 |
Book Description
Analyzing & Forecasting Future Prices is and advanced and highly practical guide to the latest methods of analyzing and predicting futures prices and applying them to hedging and speculation. Requires minimal mathematics.
Customer Reviews:
Forceasting Futures prices.......2003-01-07
The Book has detailed explanations and examples of futures trading techniques and a lot technical analysis. One of the few forecasting books that is not lost in mathematics . The spread sheet examples purred like a kitten in excel. This in turn can be used to judge the significance of cycles or trends. The spread sheet are a great help to sort and mange data to see what you are really looking at. Easy to follow real world examples. It's the kind of book you wish for in MBA classes but never seem to see
Just another system.......2002-01-04
The author does a fine job of presenting his system, however, he forgets to explain how he goes about his analysis. A comprehensive book would inform the reader how the author conducts analysis. Besides, one would expect for the price of the publication, a print date of Jan 2001 may offer an updated version of the original print: no luck. Much of the print dedicated to computer application uses old Lotus language - it is clear this edition could care less about users in Jan 2001 - it also seems to pass over the 90s as well. In all, it seems the author presents his notes on a system of looking for cycles, but the path is not clear and the guide not up to date. I am a commodity hedger and I find little use with book.
Customer Reviews:
Another Imposter review, it would seem........2006-08-09
"Ronnie Davis" below appears to be yet another poseur, generally using my background as both a technical analyst and real estate professional to take shots at books he evidently doesn't understand.
"Ronnie's" cycle analysis clearly demonstrates he doesn't understand and/or hasn't read Chris's book. I'd guess he lacks my MA in math, as well. As it happens, I did a bit of the statistical analysis involved in validating the work Chris did. The work I did does, in fact, confirm that Chris's methods work.
On the other hand, using them is non-trivial. I have not put in the work to incorporate the methodology into my own work, but perhaps I should. I have seen how well Chris uses his own methods; his results are very good indeed.
I will say that if you expect a quick read that makes you an instant multimillionaire, this is not the book for you. This is a book that requires a good bit of reader effort, both in the understanding and the application. Perhaps that's where "Ronnie" went wrong.
Nice guy but terrible book,.......2005-12-11
I don't profess to be a mathematics expert, but even I am able to calculate a cycle. I can guess with the best of them. That's it!! No more nor less! Cycles analysis is a very simple concept. Is it ethical to take/borrow a concept from soemone else and then apply one's name to it? I don't think so but I have seen this many times in this unethical industry. Regardless whoever the the vendor or promoter might be I can guarantee you that I have likely created or produced the orignal research. Trading is not even a full time job for me as I devote most of my time to real estate. Now don't get me wrong the author may have something to say but one could gain enough information related to this topic by merely reading a paragraph on the internet. I am tempted to write my own book on the shams and deceit practiced by securities' vendors but I feel obligated to expose my own industry first. Do I perceive myself as a consumer advocate crusader? You bet! Am I qualified? Most certainly!
A great beginning, but not yet complete.......2003-12-20
Chris Carolan's Spiral Calendar brings to light the undeniable discovery that important market moves can be linked together in time using a more natural, and therefore more efficient time system based on Fibonacci and our own moon. By "more efficient" I mean "more efficient than man-made time units."
This is one of those books where you will need to read it once over, put it away for a few days, then read it again in order to be able to fully grasp everything that is being said. It can get pretty complicated at some points, but Chris does his best to display the information and explain things in a way that makes the most sense.
Yes, as a previous reviewer pointed out, some of the systems have not yet been perfected. You must understand that this is only the tip of the iceberg for a completely new way of looking at not only market behavior but the world around us. Chris lays the basic foundation for what I hope one day will be pursued as a real supplement to market forecasting, especially Elliott Wave (and if no one else does, I am, so it'll get done one way or another).
In a way, this book may be the modern day equal to the R.N. Elliott's original writings back in the 30's; a great discovery but very much in its infancy.
So this book is about as "complete" as you can get because it tells pretty much all that is currently known on the subject at this time.
It doesn't work.......2002-02-24
Beware of long convoluted gobbledygook from anyone. It won't work. This book is a fine example -- Check out chapter 10, "Future Forecasts". Carolan says there will be a big top about October 1995. Was there? No. Then "Expect a major low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average near Monday, July 27, 1998." There was a small low in October which led to the rally into 2000 but all July had was a small top. This guy is batting 0 for 2, which is perhaps to be expected given his odd semi-astrological methods. There are tons of good ways to measure the market that do work. You don't need this book. I stopped to review it because I am now on my way to recycle it along with some other waste paper.
fascinating calendar links.......2001-11-07
This book is a must read for all traders and/or markets watchers or students.
However I wonder what the other reviewer from Fort Worth wrote: it is quite complicated and not stricly related to the text. Maybe if he could elaborate....
thanks
JC
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