Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)

Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
Average customer rating:

To Weather Economic Storms

this book is a buy.

Crash Proof if you have the assets!

Quarterlife Finance says, "Read it with a grain of salt."

Good to be aware of this, don't have to agree....

Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
Peter D. Schiff , and John Downes
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Book Description

Praise for Crash Proof

"The dot-com implosion proves that we all need Peter Schiff's vision of investing.?His view is so global and so unique in its approach, and at a time when we all should be looking to crash-proof our portfolios, Schiff offers us this much-needed life-raft."
—Liz Claman, Cohost, CNBC Morning Call

"For those accustomed to America's economic dominance, Crash Proof is a frighteningly forthright wake-up call. But Peter Schiff is one Cassandra whose voice deserves your rapt attention. Devoid of the usual Wall Street spin, this frank and prophetic read will make you reconsider the very foundations on which your financial house is built."
—Jonathan Hoenig, Portfolio Manager, Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC and FOX News Channel analyst

"Schiff does an outstanding job of outlining the dangers to individual investors of the current economic environment and presents a plausible plan about how to deal with the risks."
—David W. Tice, Portfolio Manager, Prudent Bear Funds

"A sober assessment of the financial problems facing our country. Reading this book will prepare you for potential outcomes that Wall Street and the mainstream financial media are completely unaware of."
—Bill Fleckenstein, founder and President of Fleckenstein Capital and MSN.com Money columnist

Customer Reviews:

To Weather Economic Storms.......2007-10-06

I heard a radio interview with Peter Schiff and was very impressed with what he had to say, so much so that I purchased two copies of "Crash Proof", one for me and one for my son. I am advising my son to discuss Mr. Schiff's investment recommendations with his certified financial planner after he finishes the book.

this book is a buy........2007-10-06

I enjoyed the book. everyone who is worried about the economic trend in the US should read this book. I is a buy because it's a book that one can keep for future reference.

Crash Proof if you have the assets!.......2007-10-05

My wife and I read this and found it very helpful. It makes sense. However, our assets only amount to 40K. We are retired and all of our income is from SS and a pension in dollars. There is nothing we can do about this. We moved almost all of our assets out of dollars.

If and when the US economy collapses, we will be hurt badly even if our 40K remains solid.

Quarterlife Finance says, "Read it with a grain of salt.".......2007-10-03

Consider this scenario: The domestic manufacturing sector is all but gone. Housing prices crash and billions of dollars of unrealized equity evaporate almost overnight. Consumer spending drops and the US service economy, driven by consumer spending and propped up by foreign investment and trade deficits, crashes. Foreign investors see the weakness and stop buying dollar denominated assets, furthering the dollar's free-fall. Our interest rates shoot skyward, and at the same time we suffer hyperinflation. This catastrophic chain of events leads to a tremendous depression that leaves millions of Americans penniless and unemployed.

That is just one of the possible scenarios foreseen by Schiff and Downes in their 2007 book Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books). This book makes for an interesting read, though one to be taken with a grain of salt. The book combines dire doom-and-gloom predictions with a healthy dose of mistrust for the government. If the authors were not so absolutely correct about many of the points in the book, it wouldn't deserve a second look. The authors' predictions are proving valid with each day that goes by, though, so I think this book is worth reading.

The book spends the first seven chapters discussing why the US economy is about to collapse. The author delves into the shift from a manufacturing to a service economy and the possible consequences. He examines inflation and convincingly explains why he believes that the government manipulates inflation indicators to hide the truth. He predicts a sharp decline in the dollar for many reasons, including the possibility that the dollar may no longer be the world's reserve currency after a few years.

He goes on to consider the chaos that has affected the stock market in recent years, and how the tech bubble never really burst but rather shifted into housing. He predicts a decline in housing on par with or greater than the tech crash at the beginning of this decade. He predicts that the same dollars will go towards creating a commodity bubble and result in even greater inflation. Before giving us his answer to these problems, he caps his analysis with a coup de grace - the problem of debt in the US. The author is very concerned about the levels of consumer debt, lack of home equity, and US government debt that threaten to overwhelm both US citizens and the economy as a whole.

Finally, we are given the answer to this impending crisis in three simple steps: move most of your investment dollars into foreign dividend-paying stocks and gold, and hold a reserve of liquidity (preferably in foreign currency) to allow you to take advantage of investment opportunities as the domestic economy comes crashing down around you.

I liked this book for many reasons. For one, it presents a worst-case scenario that deserves serious consideration given the veracity of some of the authors' claims. Second, it presents interesting reading. I particularly enjoyed the authors' analogy of the current world economy to an island on which six Asians work around-the-clock to feed, clothe, and shelter the sole American - who benefits the Asians by giving them a reason to produce.

Most interestingly, the author hit the nail on the head with respect to both housing and the declining dollar. An investor in February, 2007 (when this book was published) would have done very well moving his portfolio to gold and foreign stocks.

However, there were some major problems with this book, in my opinion. First and foremost, the book ends with a shameless plug for the authors' investment company. If his ideas are that excellent, he should not need to plug his brokerage....clients will find him regardless. Also, he presents his company as the single outlet for implementing his plan. I would appreciate two or three unbiased options (low-cost foreign index funds, for example) - otherwise his entire book seems like a fear-based ploy to increase his own business with little regard for his clients.

The authors also make a strong case for dividends over capital appreciation. However, if you are a believer in efficient markets, singling out dividend-paying stocks will not result in a greater return than the market as a whole.

Lastly, a major premise of the book is that the lack of manufacturing in America will lead to a decline in the dollar, inflation, and recession. However, I think it is important to note that a declining dollar may serve to bolster our manufacturing sector by making our products more competitive both domestically and internationally. So the very problem the authors present could potentially solve itself.

Overall, the authors do an excellent job of considering the potential for a decline in the US economy, and present some interesting strategies to mitigate the effects of the crash. Even if you disagree with the authors, some of their strategies (including investment in foreign securities and gold) have a place in almost every portfolio.

Good to be aware of this, don't have to agree...........2007-10-03

I saw Peter Schiff on CNBC and was drawn to his style. I love the fact that he stands up to these idiot talking heads that think everything is "pretty good".. the economy is basically strong they will tell you. Well I tend to agree with Schiff's views. Worth the read.

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century

Average customer rating:

What a good boy am I
My opinion is flat
Great book to introduce an inside to the 90's and now
Friedman's writing and subjects are captivating
Globalization 3.0

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century
Thomas L. Friedman
Manufacturer: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0374292884
Release Date: 2005-04-05

Amazon.com

Thomas L. Friedman is not so much a futurist, which he is sometimes called, as a presentist. His aim, in his new book, The World Is Flat, as in his earlier, influential Lexus and the Olive Tree, is not to give you a speculative preview of the wonders that are sure to come in your lifetime, but rather to get you caught up on the wonders that are already here. The world isn't going to be flat, it is flat, which gives Friedman's breathless narrative much of its urgency, and which also saves it from the Epcot-style polyester sheen that futurists--the optimistic ones at least--are inevitably prey to.

What Friedman means by "flat" is "connected": the lowering of trade and political barriers and the exponential technical advances of the digital revolution have made it possible to do business, or almost anything else, instantaneously with billions of other people across the planet. This in itself should not be news to anyone. But the news that Friedman has to deliver is that just when we stopped paying attention to these developments--when the dot-com bust turned interest away from the business and technology pages and when 9/11 and the Iraq War turned all eyes toward the Middle East--is when they actually began to accelerate. Globalization 3.0, as he calls it, is driven not by major corporations or giant trade organizations like the World Bank, but by individuals: desktop freelancers and innovative startups all over the world (but especially in India and China) who can compete--and win--not just for low-wage manufacturing and information labor but, increasingly, for the highest-end research and design work as well. (He doesn't forget the "mutant supply chains" like Al-Qaeda that let the small act big in more destructive ways.) Friedman tells his eye-opening story with the catchy slogans and globe-hopping anecdotes that readers of his earlier books and his New York Times columns will know well, and also with a stern sort of optimism. He wants to tell you how exciting this new world is, but he also wants you to know you're going to be trampled if you don't keep up with it. His book is an excellent place to begin. --Tom Nissley

Where Were You When the World Went Flat?

Thomas L. Friedman's reporter's curiosity and his ability to recognize the patterns behind the most complex global developments have made him one of the most entertaining and authoritative sources for information about the wider world we live in, both as the foreign affairs columnist for the New York Times and as the author of landmark books like From Beirut to Jerusalem and The Lexus and the Olive Tree. They also make him an endlessly fascinating conversation partner, and we'd happily have peppered him with questions about The World Is Flat for hours. Read our interview to learn why there's almost no one from Washington, D.C., listed in the index of a book about the global economy, and what his one-plank platform for president would be. (Hint: his bumper stickers would say, "Can You Hear Me Now?")

The Essential Tom Friedman

From Beirut to Jerusalem
The Lexus and the Olive Tree
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More on Globalization and Development

China, Inc. by Ted Fishman
Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz
The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs

Globalization and Its Discontents by Joseph Stiglitz
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The Mystery of Capital by Hernando de Soto

Book Description

When scholars write the history of the world twenty years from now, and they come to the chapter "Y2K to March 2004," what will they say was the most crucial development? The attacks on the World Trade Center on 9/11 and the Iraq war? Or the convergence of technology and events that allowed India, China, and so many other countries to become part of the global supply chain for services and manufacturing, creating an explosion of wealth in the middle classes of the world's two biggest nations, giving them a huge new stake in the success of globalization? And with this "flattening" of the globe, which requires us to run faster in order to stay in place, has the world gotten too small and too fast for human beings and their political systems to adjust in a stable manner?

In this brilliant new book, the award-winning New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman demystifies the brave new world for readers, allowing them to make sense of the often bewildering global scene unfolding before their eyes. With his inimitable ability to translate complex foreign policy and economic issues, Friedman explains how the flattening of the world happened at the dawn of the twenty-first century; what it means to countries, companies, communities, and individuals; and how governments and societies can, and must, adapt. The World Is Flat is the timely and essential update on globalization, its successes and discontents, powerfully illuminated by one of our most respected journalists.

Download Description

The Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist gives a bold, timely, and surprising picture of the state of globalization in the twenty-first century

Customer Reviews:

What a good boy am I.......2007-10-06

Reading this book is like watching someone else's kids open their Christmas presents from relatives they don't really know. I'm not sure how the author can possibly be so fascinated by technology and yet know absolutely nothing about it at the same time, but his endless diatribes about the miracles of PayPal and Microsoft Word are beyond laughable, and I was pretty much in shock when he started citing howstuffworks-dot-com as a technical reference on fiber optics and SOAP. What editor told him that this was OK?

So enamored with his own cleverness is he that Mr. Friedman dedicates several pages to explaining the book's title, even though a single sentence would have sufficed. Unfortunately, this doesn't stop after the first chapter; rather than make a point and move on, he has to point out the fact that he just made a point and tell you what a wonderful point it was just in case you missed the point. It's like hanging out with that one friend who sits around smiling and pointing to his butt after he f*rts at the dinner table.

If you want to learn about globalization and are not old enough to remember the first light bulb, go read "No Logo" instead. This is horrible, irrelevant geriatric babbling.

My opinion is flat.......2007-10-03

When a book has had over a thousand reviews, what can I possibly say that hasn't already been said? So I will keep it short and not so sweet.

No one will read this book, or any of the updates, for "fun." Do you NEED to read it? Yes, it contains some important economic concepts and realities, but it's a bit overlong. I'd say it could be cut in half, so skim through some of the numerous "interviews," repetition of central points, and endless advice and encouragement. The global pie is getting bigger and better, but the competition for piecies of that pie is heating up. Smart, ambitious, creative people will thrive; slow, lazy, dull people will languish, and everything inbetween. For too long many Americans have been sitting on their laurels and the day of reckoning is near. Heed this warning: Put down your TV remotes, game controllers, and iPods, and start working like your life (or lifestyle) depended on it. Get your rear into some serious gear, and don't balk at the notion that you should be an "expert" in at least three different, unrelated fields. Does this scare or excite you?

In so many interviews with foreign entrepreneurs, we are told (or reassured) that no matter how much of the "mundane" work is performed by countries other than the U.S., America's creative and innovative spark is still unsurpassed: All the world looks to America to lead the way into the future. I'm not sure. A lot of that "mundane" work was high level and highly paid, and why should we expect that America will continue to dominate in creativity and innovation? The truth is, we're in for a flattening of living standards, and from the perspective of the relatively high American standard of living, it will seem like a drop in standards until we reach another equilibrium (who knows how long that will take?). In any case, the reassurances about the talents and abilities of Americans seem at odds with other parts of the book, such as Bill Gates feeling "terrified at the American work force of tomorrow."

If you're already working hard at becoming an expert in three fields, then you probably don't need to read this book. Indeed, you probably don't have time to read it, or to read and write Amazon reviews, for that matter.

Great book to introduce an inside to the 90's and now.......2007-10-03

This was an excellent book for someone who is ever curious about the expanding global ecomomy as a whole. As a sailor in the U.S. Navy I found the book fasinating because I not only grew up during which most of the book was talking about but I am witnessing the predictions of the book first hand. Great book all around!!

Friedman's writing and subjects are captivating.......2007-09-27

Are you still a little confused about why American corporations are outsourcing to India and manufacturing in China, or why Al Qaeda has suddenly become so powerful? If so, this is the book for you.

Friedman's made 'Globalization' simple enough for a high school student to understand. That being said, this is NOT a high school textbook. It is NOT dry. Friedman is a great journalist and an author who will hold your attention chapter after chapter.

Friedman has a knack for taking complex and often emotionally charged issues and breaking them down into easy to understand concepts. You don't have to be a graduate student to enjoy this book. It's great!

Globalization 3.0.......2007-09-24

I wish I had read this book during a Globalization class I took a year ago.

Friedman is an exceptional writer, very engaging. He really lays out the information well and then brings in together in the latter part of the book.

I thought the middle part of the book could of been edited a bit.

Overall, an excellent introduction to globalization and the affect this will have on the US and industries in general.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Average customer rating:

Very thoughtful and enlightening book
Mr. Taleb Should Stay Away from Theology
Hard to Read
You have to work to separate the wheat from the chaff
Not recommended

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Manufacturer: Random House
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1400063515
Release Date: 2007-04-17

Amazon.com

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

Book Description

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.

Customer Reviews:

Very thoughtful and enlightening book.......2007-10-02

Taleb has a winner here. The book brings a new slant to what really drives almost every trend. Often the stock traders and predictors of political events are not just wrong, but dead wrong. The reasons for these mistakes and others are explained in entertaining fashion in this book "The Black Swan".

Mr. Taleb Should Stay Away from Theology.......2007-10-01

I found this book highly entertaining. I love the way he writes, his sense humor. But I was very disappointed to see him press repeatedly his complete rejection of the Christian/Judeo understanding of the history of man, the history of God's plan for man's salvation. Ok, he has not the gift of faith. That's ok, perhaps one day. But when I purchase a book on the markets, economics, etc. I expect just that. Not repeated remarks (page 100, 118, etc.) about the non-existence of miracles, how the human race is a mere accident. Why should he be selling this ? Why should I accept his assertions ? On faith ? He's a good man wrapped in a self-contradiction of skeptiscism. I just wish his editor had filtered these things out from the final MS.

Hard to Read.......2007-09-29

I read a chapter of this book. It seemed to me it was trying to make political points (and therefore I found it untrustworthy) also it was just hard to read because I found it boring.

You have to work to separate the wheat from the chaff.......2007-09-24

There's no doubt that Nassim Taleb is a brilliant man. And, there's no doubt that he is frustrated by having to work among people who don't get it. What is there to get? Simply that the quest for certainty -- through mathematics, science or other logic disciplines -- may end up being the very thing which obfuscates the truth; that we end up not being able to see the forest for the trees. I think what he is saying is that there can never be certainty; that there will always be Black Swans...random events.
The reason why I say "I think" that is what he is saying is because there is so much stuff here -- a lot of which is totally irrelevant. He talks about his home town, seemingly just to wax nostaligic, though he may use the vignette to talk -- belaboredly -- about a point. Among the other stuff he presents is: an unusally high regard for the French language; too much - again irrelevant - reference to and back-story about thought leaders, and; palpable disdain for some colleagues in the quantitative field. If you can get through all of that and hold on to the nuggets, though, you will see some fresh thinking. Just his distinction between 2 different systems of thought is worth the work required. There are other presentations which may shift the way you think about things, too. In the end, it's worth reading, but you will have to focus on what's important because he doesn't.

Not recommended.......2007-09-21

The author expressed his strong negative options on statistics, econometrics, some finance professors, some Nobel Prize winners, etc. The whole point is that traditional stat, econ, finance techniques are mostly around the first moment (mean) but the distributions in finance tend to be non-normal and it's the risk that we should pay more attention to. That's a point few people would disagree with. What the author may not have known is that there are stat techniques out there that handle all the issues mentioned - while it's true that there's a lot of room for improvement, it's misleading to say that this is an area ignored by the academics and practitioners. While fractals are recommended, it is not clear how they can be directly applied to the area of investment finance.

There is a 2007 issue in American Statistican dedicated to the debate with the author and is highly recommended.

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Leadership for the Common Good)

Average customer rating:

Enlightening
On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming
Predictably bad
Predictably OK
Updating the March of Folly

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Leadership for the Common Good)
Max H. Bazerman , and Michael D. Watkins
Manufacturer: Harvard Business School Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Book Description

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs

This book shows why such “predictable surprises” put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.

There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it.

Customer Reviews:

Enlightening.......2007-08-27

The book jumps around but makes clear and valid points. A great eye opener! I would recommend this to students, leaders, informed citizens...just about anybody. I'm definitely getting more copies for friends and loved ones.

On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming.......2005-10-07

Anyone who has worked for some sort of organization, government agency, business, university or whatever, will empathise with "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins. This book focuses on the early and late warning signs, the cover-ups, the denials, and the eventual consequences of failing to take action to avert disaster. I've been in far too many situations where I observed that the peple "in charge" (really??) were blindsided by their own limited vision to the realities of what was happening within their organizations.

There are two "Predictable Surprises" that weren't included. First, Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath in New Orleans. Anyone visiting that city and talking with one's professional compatriates could have seen coming what unfolded before our eyes. The warning signs and studies were out there and ignored. That's why those who had a reasonable level of education left town and paid attention to the evacuation notices.

The other predictable surprise that was missed was the sex abuse scandal in the Roman Catholic Church. I'm Protestant but know a lot of fine Roman Catholic people. I heard things as long ago as fifty years and knew then that this situation was going to explode in the public domain. "Predictable Surprises" provides the principals that explain why this particular surprise was kept under the radar so long.

An outstanding book that should be read by everyone working in the corporate world, a government agency, a university, the military, or a non-profit organization. Your life may depend on knowing what's in this book.

Predictably bad.......2005-06-14

A major shortcoming of Bazerman and Watkins' book is the failure to provide adequate evidence to support their arguments about what they call "predictable surprises", which they define as "an event or series of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." Bazerman and Watkins build their case substantially on just two examples: aviation security failures leading to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and auditor independence concerns leading to the collapse of Enron and Arthur Anderson. Several other examples are discussed in less depth throughout the text, however many of these are not actually predictable surprises under the definition provided. For example, global warming is discussed a number of times; however global warming has been in public discussion since the 1930s, and today a substantial majority of people believe not only the concept of global warming but that current warming is man-made. By 2050, this subject will have been under study for 120 years and popular consensus will have been achieved for 50-60 years. This is certainly predictable, but hardly a surprise. The United States' looming crisis in entitlement spending also falls in this category.

Flaws exist in other anecdotal support as well. For example, Bazerman and Watkins cite aviation security failures as an occasion when overly discounting the future lead to a predictable surprise. Quick calculation based on figures provided in the book show that, using equal discount rates for the expected future cost of security and the future cost of disaster, even with a disaster probability as high as 10% for any given year, the airlines would be ahead on a cost basis. The total destruction of both World Trade Center towers and the massive ensuing death toll was not reasonably foreseeable by the airline industry; based on the typical passenger plan carrying 78 people, this was the equivalent of an absurd 41 simultaneous aircraft disasters! Given the cost of implementation and the low probability of such a large disaster, even at a full cost of nearly $50 billion, the airlines' decision to oppose security measures on a cost basis was reasonable. The full scope of this surprise was unlikely enough that it should not be termed "predictable."

Despite some good analysis of reasons predictable surprises occur and ways to avoid them, this book is critically weakened by its lack of evidence. Bazerman and Watkins try to make it stand largely on just the aviation security and auditor independence failures; however these are insufficient evidence for their broad analysis and conclusions, particularly given the weakness of those arguments provided. This book would be substantially more persuasive with more anecdotal support.

Predictably OK.......2005-05-11

In a world ruled by probability, all predictions eventually come true (no matter how impossible.) That said, ignoring the obvious can be disastrous, but the authors methods for prioritizing risk were disappointing.

Updating the March of Folly.......2005-02-23

The authors have found a memorable phrase to describe a depressingly common phenomenon - the occurrence of a disaster or failure that has been widely and often publicly predicted. The term `predictable surprise' will undoubtedly enter the managerial and political language.

They have provided a valuable analysis of why these predictable disasters occur and what can be done to prevent them (while recognizing that there are also such things as `unpredictable surprises' which can not be avoided through these processes).

The book is invaluable for the clear way in which it brings the elements together and for the vividness and immediacy of the examples chosen to illustrate the points. The result is a book that is very readable as well as being immediately useful, even if many of the points have also been made elsewhere by other authors. The book provides a template against which organizations can assess their defences against `predictable surprises', and I suspect that every organization will find gaps in its armour when it measures itself against the recommendations in the book.

The authors also use the book to mount a stinging attack on the failures of the American political system (and by extension those of other countries) and the need for fundamental reform. Their attack on the activities of the special interest groups and their direct responsibility for some of the worst disasters that the US has suffered is particularly pointed. One can only hope that the criticisms will be listened to and acted upon, and that politicians as well as business people will read and note them.

Throughout the book, the systemic, interconnected nature of the processes that lead to predictable surprises is very clear, but the authors do not, in my opinion, highlight the fact as strongly as they should. They do point out that depletion of international fisheries is a classic case of 'the tragedy of the commons', one of several archetypal forms of systems relationship, but virtually every example that the authors cite could well be illustrated with simple systems diagrams based on one or other of the classic 'systems archetypes'. Systemic issues require systemic solutions and the leverage for systemic change may be located well beyond the area of control of the immediate actors - another fact that shows up clearly in the course of the authors' examples.

It is probably no coincidence that I was strongly reminded of Barbara Tuchman's The March of Folly as I read the book. The perspective and coverage is different, but the themes of willful ignorance, willful inaction and willful pursuit of perceived short-term self interest as fundamental drivers of future disasters are common to both. If Tuchman were still alive, I would have confidently expected an analysis of Iraq to follow her masterful analysis of the Vietnam war, the American War of Independence and the drivers of the Reformation. In its own way, Predictable Surprises provides a contemporary update of the ways in which we continue the march of folly.

The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities

Average customer rating:

A great book for students and lousy choice for Investors!
Great book
Best book on Economic indicators I've read
Good Resource
Excellent Basic Information About Important Economic Data

The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities
Bernard Baumohl
Manufacturer: Wharton School Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 013145501X

Book Description

Every day, stocks, bonds, and currencies bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators. Money managers obsess over those statistics, because they provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the financial markets.

Now you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals do.You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA... just this easy-to-use book.

Former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl has done the impossible: he's made economic indicators fascinating.

Using real-world examples and stories,Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters.Where to find them.What they look like. What the insiders know about their track records. And exactly how to interpret them.

Whether you're an investor,broker, portfolio manager, researcher, journalist,or student, you'll find this book indispensable.Nobody can predict the future with certainty. But The Secrets of Economic Indicators will get you as close as humanly possible.

What the numbers really mean...

...to stocks, bonds, rates, currencies, and you

Ahead of the curve: spotting turning points

Calling recessions and recoveries in time to profit from them

Leading indicators: where's the economy really heading

Decoding initial unemployment claims, housing starts, the yield curve, and other predictors

Beyond the borders

Why foreign indicators are increasingly important—and how to use them

Making sense of indicators in conflict

What to do when the numbers disagree

Finding the data

Free web resources for the latest economic data

Download Description

Every day, stocks, bonds and currencies bounce around wildly in response to economic indicators like these. They're monitored obsessively by the world's leading money managers. Why? Because they provide crucial, subtle clues about the future of the market -- and of individual investments. Now you can profit from these indicators just like the professionals do. You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA -- just this easy-to-read book. In plain English, renowned economic journalist Bernard Baumohl helps you find the numbers, understand their deepest meanings, and use your knowledge to make fast, smart investment decisions. For each key indicator, Baumohl presents a sample release, insider's information on the indicator's track record, and step-by-step instructions for decoding it. Baumohl covers both US indicators and the foreign indicators that are becoming increasingly important to investors. He answers key questions like: Which indicators are most likely to affect my personal investments or business? How does each indicator affect interest rates and bond prices? Stock prices? The value of the dollar? And what can these reports tell me where the economy's really heading?

Customer Reviews:

A great book for students and lousy choice for Investors!.......2007-09-25

The utility of this book is directly related to what your objective is going to be ..

1. If you are a student who want to learn economic indicators, this book is a must read. In simple language and interesting examples, every economic indicator is explained.

2. If you are like me, an investor trying to decipher the economic indicators to make meaning to your investing decisions , you are better off tracking the tigers directly than analysing the terrain and weather patterns ( with some high level information that you can pick up from yahoo finance,CNBC etc ..example : Missed Durable goods meant stocks are down today )

Still if you are determined to understand the economic indicators, this is how you can maximise your time..

Every Chapter is an economic indicator has the following sections:

Market sensitivity (read the chapter if it is high or skip it entirely)
Why is it important ( read it)
How is it computed ( skip it)
Market Impact ( read it)

The world is already complicated and in a frenzy. Spend your time with your kids, get some fresh air or even watch TV than reading these type of academic books (Exception Students and to some extend Money managers)

Usually market takes care of the numbers within the first 15 minuts of a trading day on bad or good news!I am sure Warren buffett wont spend more than 15 minutes of his time a week digesting these news ( if at all he follows it)

If you trade sporadically, You may chose to read my review about an excellent stock market related book... Something that you can act upon!

The Successful Investor: What 80 Million People Need to Know to Invest Profitably and Avoid Big Losses

Great book.......2007-09-01

Before I read this book, I had no knowledge in any aspect of the field of economics. After reading this book, I was prepared enough to earn an easy A in the macroeconomics course I took this summer at the local college. The book was easy enough to read for someone with no economics background; and it had enough advanced information to completely prepare myself for an easy A. I strongly recommend this book to everyone, no matter of your previous knowledge. You will learn a lot.

Best book on Economic indicators I've read.......2007-08-30

This book was EXACTLY what I was looking for. I wanted a book that will tell me which economic indicators stocks were most sensitive to, what they were, and what I should look for.

This book for perfect for that. The look lists out the 10 most important indicators for not only stocks, but bonds and the US Dollar currency as well. Not only that, it lists our almost every economic indicator regardless if it's in the top 10 or not. So you read up on every economic indicator regardless of where it's in the top 10 or not.

It also includes foreign economic indicators which was very useful.

If you want to know about economic indicators, this is the only book you need.

Good Resource.......2007-08-27

The author does a thorough job detailing each individual variable that he covers. In addition, he gives a good framework for conceptualizing where each variable fits into the overall economic landscape. Categorizing each variable by High, Medium, and Low impact along with an explanation as to why is another important and helpful feature. The individual variable synopsis can be a bit redundant if you are reading cover to cover but the redundancy helps to increase its value as a ready reference.

I recommend that all financial/business analysts have something like this unless they are so fully immersed in this data that it is second nature.

The only reason for 4 stars is that it is pointed a bit too much toward the lay reader (but of course this was the author's original audience so, bravo).

Excellent Basic Information About Important Economic Data.......2007-08-19

Baumohl begins by telling us that at least 43 American economic indicators are published each month by our government, and how they are released under strict conditions that prevent anyone from early (unfair) access. He also explains that foreign indicators are also important - nearly half of S&P 500 company earnings come from outside the U.S., and they own about 15% of U.S. equities, 24% of corporate bonds, and 40% of U.S. Treasuries, totalling some $1.5 trillion.

"The Secrets" then briefly reviews "The Lingo", before spending most of its pages covering "The Most Influential Economic Indicators." Employment data are first, and Baumohl explains how they are derived, their limitations, how sensitive the bond and stock markets are to each one of them, etc. Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and others are then also reviewed in the same manner. (It was particularly interesting to learn why Consumer Confidence survey data is more erratic than the University of Michigan's data on the same topic - the latter largely uses the same group from one survey to the next.)

Then its on to foreign indicators, and free Internet sources for the data. (Economic indicator data used to be available only to those purchasing special services, per Baumohl.)

Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice: With Smile, Inflation and Credit (Springer Finance)

Average customer rating:

Best book on interest rate models
The best book I have read on the subject
New stuff and nice overview: hard to beat!
Nicely written overview of interest rate models
Well written and useful book

Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice: With Smile, Inflation and Credit (Springer Finance)
Damiano Brigo , and Fabio Mercurio
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Similar Items:

The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner's Guide (Wiley Finance)
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Volatility and Correlation: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox (Wiley Finance)
Stochastic Calculus for Finance II: Continuous-Time Models (Springer Finance)
Modern Pricing of Interest-Rate Derivatives: The LIBOR Market Model and Beyond

Accessories:

Mathematics for Finance: An Introduction to Financial Engineering (Springer Undergraduate Mathematics Series)
Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering (Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability)

ASIN: 3540221492

Book Description

The 2nd edition of this successful book has several new features. The calibration discussion of the basic LIBOR market model has been enriched considerably, with an analysis of the impact of the swaptions interpolation technique and of the exogenous instantaneous correlation on the calibration outputs. A discussion of historical estimation of the instantaneous correlation matrix and of rank reduction has been added, and a LIBOR-model consistent swaption-volatility interpolation technique has been introduced.

The old sections devoted to the smile issue in the LIBOR market model have been enlarged into several new chapters. New sections on local-volatility dynamics, and on stochastic volatility models have been added, with a thorough treatment of the recently developed uncertain-volatility approach. Examples of calibrations to real market data are now considered.

The fast-growing interest for hybrid products has led to new chapters. A special focus here is devoted to the pricing of inflation-linked derivatives.

The three final new chapters of this second edition are devoted to credit. Since Credit Derivatives are increasingly fundamental, and since in the reduced-form modeling framework much of the technique involved is analogous to interest-rate modeling, Credit Derivatives -- mostly Credit Default Swaps (CDS), CDS Options and Constant Maturity CDS - are discussed, building on the basic short rate-models and market models introduced earlier for the default-free market. Counterparty risk in interest rate payoff valuation is also considered, motivated by the recent Basel II framework developments.

Customer Reviews:

Best book on interest rate models.......2002-12-14

This is the best book available on interest rate models. Very detailed. Much more focused and readable than Rebonato's book. More pragmatic and explicit than Musiela and Rutkowski. Not as theoretical as Hunt and Kennedy. James and Webber also looks very good, but I'm not that familiar with it. All other books have only bits and pieces on interest rates.

The best book I have read on the subject.......2002-05-06

With all the due respect to the other authors I would say that if one is interested in a good theoretical book whihc is also good on the implementation side then the book of Brigo and Mercurion is definetly the best book I have ever read on the subject.

Anyone interested in implementing the LMM/BGM/MSS model in practice is well advised to read it.

I would just say that this is certainly a must have in the field.

New stuff and nice overview: hard to beat!.......2002-01-17

In the late nineties I went through Brigo's innovative work on stochastic nonlinear filtering with differential geometry techniques. I was favorably impressed by results and style, particularly in his dissertation and in his 'geometry in present day science' very readable overview. Interesting results are found and nicely told with accurate - but not pointlessly complicated - advanced mathematics for the problems at hand, I reasoned.

I've followed a similar path from control to finance, and having worked with interest rate models, I couldn't help but order this Brigo-Mercurio book. I had high expectations 'cause these two guys are working in a bank on the real thing.

Sure enough I'm not disappointed.

1-factor models are handled with great care, a ton of formulas and recipes are given. I've never seen this kind of analysis of pricing with Gaussian 1-f models. The new upgrade of the CIR model is interesting and accurate. "CIR++" is now my favorite 1-f model. I like the treatment of lognormal 1-f models and the explanation of Monte Carlo and trees -- the flow-chart for Bermudan swaptions is crystal clear! Plots of market implied structures and volatility calibration are useful additions.

The chapter on 2-f extensions has one of the best discussions on volatility, and two tons of useful formulas/recipes. Two dimensional trees!

The HJM chapter size is OK. I agree - the useful models embedded in HJM are short rate models and market models.

Market models - these three chapters alone are worth the book. You'll find yourself nodding as you read the guided tour. They make it look easy all the time. The exposition is focused, clear, intuitive, detailed. There's also new stuff, just check the calibration discussion! Smile modeling begins with a brilliant tour and ends with Brigo-Mercurio's new approach - the mixing dynamics - deserving a whole chapter if expanded.

The detailed explanation on products is a much welcome original addition. Cross currency derivatives!

Quotes - as in Brigo's old work - are a pleasant diversion while reading. The 500 and more pages are a treat given the competitive price.

Still there's room for improvements - more "CIR2++"! Something on 3-f models. Historical estimation of the correlation matrix and low-rank optimized approximations. Expand smile modeling! More hedging. Something on structured products. Cross currency libor model. chapter 9 - other interest rate models - sounds out of place and can be suppressed for other things.

This book rings true and has useful teachings for students, academics and practitioners. Although it requires some background in stochastic calculus, it's hard to beat on the pricing front. Kudos to Brigo and Mercurio! It only harms there aren't enough books like this.

Nicely written overview of interest rate models.......2001-12-15

This recent book, written by two Italian "quants" Mercurio & Brigo, gives a nice and accessible overview of interest rate models which is a compromise between the practitioner viewpoint, expressed for ex. in Rebonato's book "Interet Rate option models"
and the theoretical viewpoint such as the one in Musiela & Rutkowski.
The authors, themselves PhDs in quantitative finance/ applied maths, wrote this book while working as quants in an Italian bank and this first hand contact with the market gave them a
practical view on the subject which markes this book very interesting.

The book contains a "rational" catalogue of models used in practice ( as opposed to models which are impossible to implement!).

In contrast with academic books on interest rate modeling which deal with HJM formulation, there is a lot of emphasis here on LIBOR and Swap market models
(BGM -Jamshidian models) which reflects the current market practice. This is a positive point since there are not many books with details on implementing and using these "market models".

Part II: Interest rate models in practice is particularly useful because it deals with implementation and calibration which, as any practitioner knows, are important and usually delicate issues.
However calibration issues are dealt with somewhat lightly, especially recent developments on modeling cap/swaption smiles
are not included here.

This book can also be used for a graduate level/PhD course on interest rate models.

There are a lot of numerical examples in the book and mathematics is kept to the necessary level while keeping the
approach both rigorous and understandable.

Overall, it is one of the best books written on the subject.
I highly recommend it to PhD students, quants and researchers interested in this field.

Well written and useful book.......2001-11-04

In my humble opinion, this is the best book on Interest Rate modeling out there. The writing style is clear and focused and the appendices are fantastic. The book is rigorous but someone with some background in Stochastic Calculus will find it easy to follow. If you need refresher, dont worry the authors have you covered, see the appendix on Stochastic Calculus. Not an introductory book. Very exciting book.

Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method: The First Scientific, Objective Approach to Market Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory (version 2)

Average customer rating:

Loads of great knowledge, but hard, hard work!
Not for the majority.
excellent style
very difficult
like learning to ride a bike

Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method: The First Scientific, Objective Approach to Market Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory (version 2)
Glenn Neely , and Eric Hall
Manufacturer: Windsor Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0930233441

Customer Reviews:

Loads of great knowledge, but hard, hard work!.......2007-06-01

I read this book a couple of years ago, and found it fascinating and highly detailed. I imagine that for some very technically minded people this is something they can really get their teeth into and enjoy. But for simple folk like me, it was just too much, and I found much simpler methods to interpret Elliott waves that didn't take half as much time or knowledge. So, I give it a 3 star rating as its brilliance is somewhat dampened by its complexity.

Not for the majority........2007-02-20

This book is very complictated. One might have a chance if this book was treated as textbook and offered in a university over a semester long class, taking each chapter apart with live examples.
Other reviews mention that it takes years to master this method.I somewhat agree. The rules of logic are not clear and that is mainly because if the autor wanted to go to great lenght to explain everything this book would be around 2000 to 3000 pages. So, you gonna have to figure it out on your own and that will take you a lot of time!
Get an Elliot Wave Charting software you'll save yourself a lot of headache and time.

excellent style.......2006-08-17

Books concerning Elliot Wave in Taiwan, no matter it is a translation version or the texts used by many teachers in teaching technical analysis, never have the style that
Mr. Glenn Neely has in his book. I must say that this book
expresses the topics in a concise, step-by-step and to-the-point way, it's a great book that I've ever had; no book can exceed its excellence. If possible, grant me the right to translate it here in Taiwan.

very difficult.......2006-06-30

Very hard to understand, if you can read, understand and enjoy this book at all you could probably give the boys a hand in Egypt with the Hieroglyphics ........If you enjoy scientology well this one's for you!!!!!!!!!!!

like learning to ride a bike.......2006-04-22

You really don't need this level of detail for Elliot wave trading to increase your P&L. Like any other trading systems, elliot waves mostly work except when it doesn't. Without years of experience and gains and losses you won't have the confidence to make a huge P&L. Buy a simpler book unless you are really into Elliot Waves. Enjoy the third waves.

Average customer rating:

Candlestick course
Candlestick Theory
great start for newbies
Very Comprehensive in a Text Format
This is a great book

The Candlestick Course
Steve Nison , and Marketplace Books
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management

ASIN: 0471227285

Book Description

Expert instruction on the practical applications of candlestick charting

Candlestick charting is more popular than ever before, with a legion of new traders and investors being introduced to the concept by some of today’s hottest investment gurus. Having introduced the candlestick technique to the West through two of his bestselling books, Steve Nison is regarded as a luminary in the field of candlestick charting. In his new venture, The Candlestick Course, Nison explains patterns of varying complexity and tests the reader’s knowledge with quizzes, Q&As, and intensive examples. In accessible and easy-to-understand language, this book offers expert instruction on the practical applications of candlestick charting to give every level of investor a complete understanding of this proven, profitable, and time-tested investing technique. Straightforward answers quickly clarify this easy-to-use charting method. This guide will allow readers to recognize and implement various candlestick patterns and lines in today’s real-world trading environment–giving them a noticeable edge in their trading activities

Download Description

Expert instruction on the practical applications of candlestick charting

Customer Reviews:

Candlestick course.......2007-09-21

This book will improve your candlestick skills and help improve your trading success if combined with other indicators. The book is really like a textbook with questions and tests after each chapter so if you are expecting a spoonfeeding course then you might be disappointed because you have to do some homework and really practice with this book.

Candlestick Theory.......2007-09-11

Nison provides an indepth understanding of the Japanese Candlestick Theory that is easy to understand and presented in a way that you are sure to comprehend.

great start for newbies.......2007-06-27

Since I becmae interested in trading stocks in October of 2006 this was the first book that I purchased dealing with technical analysis and charts. I could not be more happy with my choice. The quizes at the end of each chapter help to cement the new information into your memory. Even though my strategies have "evolved" beyond looking through charts solely for candlestick patterns, they are still an invaluable tool and can provide great insight. I highly recommend this book.

Very Comprehensive in a Text Format.......2007-02-13

I really liked the fact that this was in a text format with questions as well as answers provided. The title says "Course" and I believe that is exactly what it is. It provides a lot of detail in such a short span of just over 200 pages. The question and answer format really helps to cement the content. As other reviewers have indicated, there was a lot of page turning back and forth to find the right chart to go with the right question but there are plenty of charts to support the material provided. I found it was just what I was looking for as a formal introduction to candlesticks from someone definitely in the know.

Happy trading!

This is a great book.......2006-10-01

This is a great book for one person - Steve Nison. :)

The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It

Average customer rating:

It is just an indicator!
Not Bad But Too Short and Too Extreme
Interesting theory but...
Excellent Read
Pretty interesting read

The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It
Daniel A. Arnold
Manufacturer: Vorago-US
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Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 159196153X

Book Description

The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be much worse than the 1930s, beginning perhaps as early as 2009-2010, and last up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030 in detail. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.

2006 Update: In late 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning towards the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snap-back to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although still delayed from the full snap-back for the reasons described, the DJIA is now over 12,000 and the FTSE is over 6,000.
3. The inflation adjusted DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snap-back, inflation adjusted DJIA returns have averaged a more modest 4%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.

Customer Reviews:

It is just an indicator!.......2007-09-12

Everyone is forgetting that the book is talking about a correlated indicator for the DJIA. There are many things that drive an economy and make things happen like the weakening dollar, monstrous deficits, the Federal Reserve, cheap credit and the housing market bubble, peak oil, etc. These are some of the things that move the DJIA, NOT just demographics. The fact that the 45-54 age group correlates to the DJIA is very interesting and CAN be used to predict what MAY happen to the DJIA in the long term. Demographics of the 45-54 age groups are a strong force pushing the markets, but not the only thing. Even the author says that some things like "the New Deal, the pill and the NASDAQ" affect the correlation with this indicator. The politicians and Wall Street are not going to lie down and let this monstrous depression happen without a fight. They my not win the War, but where the DJIA goes in the future has not been case in stone. The future highs and lows of the DJIA are still unpredictable.

The book is a high school treatise on this relationship and to the economically ignorant is a real eye opener. Most economists know about this force, but the key is what to do about it and when. The author's advice to get out of the markets by 2010 is silly at best. We are now in September of 2007 and the housing market bubble burst is probably the beginning of the down turn of the markets. Wait until 2010 to protect your assets and you will far less assets to protect. The author's advice to sell your home and rent and plow your money into bonds is simplistic at best. Investing in gold, foreign currencies, TIPS etc. to protect your assets are other stratigies that are not addressed. We are all speeding towards this economic depression, but the answers to when it will happen and what to do about protecting your assets is NOT even close to being addressed by this book. The book is $8.95 and you get what you pay for, "a wakeup call for the economically ignorant". Read the book and move onto a more advanced book for a better in depth discussion on economics and your money like "The Second Great Depression (Paperback) by Warren Brussee (Author)". I do agree that a lot of pain is ahead for the world.

Not Bad But Too Short and Too Extreme.......2007-08-22

Let me start by saying that this is a pretty good book for the price and if you don't know what is going on in the economy. The problem is that the book has very limited data to back up the predictions. If you are going to make huge predictions you had better justify it with a lot of credible data that has been referenced. As well, some of the predictions are just too extreme. However, all of these shortcomings aside, the author provides a nice short treatment on what will most likely occur; just not to the extent he has presented in my opinion. Of course, opinions are like debt in America - everyone has their own!

A much more useful book in my opinion is "Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble." It not only shows you many different ways to profit from the current bubble collapse, but it also shows a lot of detail about the economy and how to profit from America's overall credit bubble. Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble

Interesting theory but..........2007-07-09

This book is short and easy to read. The author has an interesting concept that the stock market follows the number of Americans at their peak buying age. His graphs and explanations on modifying factors make everything fit. I agree that some correction of our economy (inflation, recession, or worse) is likely in the future, but I feel other factors (energy issues, our national debt, terrorism, etc.) will come into play that he has not taken into account. I also don't agree with his investment suggestions and feel they may be reckless.
If you're concerned about possible bad times ahead, this is one book that may helpful, but I better liked the reasoning and proposals on what to do in Stephen Leeb's book The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs 200 Dollars a Barrel.

Excellent Read.......2007-05-14

Pros:
1. Brief: to the point, no fluff book(let)
2. Logical: Numbers support theory all along
3. Simple: Easy to understand
4. Value: Could save your shirt

Cons:
1. May sound too negative
2. May not consider all factors into forecasting

Pretty interesting read.......2007-05-12

This book and the argument that it lays out is pretty eye-opening. It shows you, through logical argument, how the demographics of our country will impact our coming future economic health. With these baby-boomers greying and falling from their peak spending years, our country will experience a downshift that will really challenge our concept of prosperity... A must read!

Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Controlling Risk

Average customer rating:

One to add to your reading list
Practical approach and mathematically rigorous at the same time
Theoretical framework with no practical examples.
This is the seminal text for Quantitative Finance
Very boring and dry

Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Controlling Risk
Richard C. Grinold , and Ronald N. Kahn
Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0070248826

Book Description

"This new edition of Active Portfolio Management continues the standard of excellence established in the first edition, with new and clear insights to help investment professionals."

-William E. Jacques, Partner and Chief Investment Officer, Martingale Asset Management.

"Active Portfolio Management offers investors an opportunity to better understand the balance between manager skill and portfolio risk. Both fundamental and quantitative investment managers will benefit from studying this updated edition by Grinold and Kahn."

-Scott Stewart, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Select Equity ® Discipline

Co-Manager, Fidelity Freedom ® Funds.

"This Second edition will not remain on the shelf, but will be continually referenced by both novice and expert. There is a substantial expansion in both depth and breadth on the original. It clearly and concisely explains all aspects of the foundations and the latest thinking in active portfolio management."

-Eric N. Remole, Managing Director, Head of Global Structured Equity, Credit Suisse Asset Management.

Mathematically rigorous and meticulously organized, Active Portfolio Management broke new ground when it first became available to investment managers in 1994. By outlining an innovative process to uncover raw signals of asset returns, develop them into refined forecasts, then use those forecasts to construct portfolios of exceptional return and minimal risk, i.e., portfolios that consistently beat the market, this hallmark book helped thousands of investment managers. Active Portfolio Management, Second Edition, now sets the bar even higher. Like its predecessor, this volume details how to apply economics, econometrics, and operations research to solving practical investment problems, and uncovering superior profit opportunities. It outlines an active management framework that begins with a benchmark portfolio, then defines exceptional returns as they relate to that benchmark. Beyond the comprehensive treatment of the active management process covered previously, this new edition expands to cover asset allocation, long/short investing, information horizons, and other topics relevant today. It revisits a number of discussions from the first edition, shedding new light on some of today's most pressing issues, including risk, dispersion, market impact, and performance analysis, while providing empirical evidence where appropriate. The result is an updated, comprehensive set of strategic concepts and rules of thumb for guiding the process of-and increasing the profits from-active investment management.

Customer Reviews:

One to add to your reading list.......2007-06-30

I know many have this book and have never read it. Others read this book but never really understand it. However, if you can read it and understand it, it can offer a powerful tool for how to allocate capital. It actually is the basis for most indexing and quantitative methodologies. When applied to fundemental approaches to investment it can be quite powerful.

Sadly, though not enough money managers embrace what this book is trying to say with regards to risk and return.

Practical approach and mathematically rigorous at the same time.......2006-02-01

Excellent book for whom is looking for a practical approach that at the same time is presented through a rigorous mathematical methodology. The book is absolutely superior over the academic textbooks that usually limit themselves to CAPM and efficient market theory. Grinold and Kahn go much forward and at the same time had managed to clearly and meticulously show the CAPM model, its limitations and the more sophisticated tools developed from it. Beside of showing the active way of managing a portfolio, the serious mathematical presentations through which the different theories such as CAPM are described are very convincing of how difficult it could be to beat the market.

Theoretical framework with no practical examples........2005-01-20

There is important information in this book but most of us need to see numerical examples to reinforce theoretical concepts. This book really comes up short in this area. It provides some discussion with the formulas/equations it presents but is very incomplete in terms of worked out examples. Yes, including worked out examples might might mean a book three times as long, but the book would then be many, many times more useful to practitioners.

As it currently stands the book can only benefit the super-genius-theoretical types who do not need to see examples to understand OR someone who ALREADY really understands the concepts.

The book rather frequently presents variables or constants without explicitly defining them for the reader (it assumes we know what they mean from the accompanying discussion).

The book gives exercises, but without answers what good are these?

The one thing the book does is make you realize there is a lot you do not know. You can find ideas in portfolio management that exist by reading this book but if you are at all like me you are going to have to look elsewhere for the answers. I have had better luck with Google searches for stuff like Style Analysis.

The book shows how smart the authors are: they know stuff that must of us do not. Unfortunately this is the feeling I get as I read sections of their book. They intend to keep it this way. Bottom line: the book fails to bridge the gap between theory and practice.

This is the seminal text for Quantitative Finance.......2004-11-11

If you work for one of the top alpha quant shops (Barclays, Goldman, etc.), this text is a the proverbial must read. These are the guys that essentially invented quantitative finance in its modern form, building upon the [only somewhat applicable] concepts of Sharpe and Rosenberg and demonstrating how they can be harnassed to drive alpha. Anybody who has given this text a poor review obviously doesn't work in quantitative finance (chances are they're merely stock-pickers). If you want to understand how to drive alpha and beat the market, this text goes a lot further than explaining the simple concepts of information ratio and tracking error; instead, this book touches on the beauty of multi-factor models and covariance risk management.

Very boring and dry.......2004-10-05

This book is a funny phenomenon in itself: it seems that every portfolio manager keeps a copy on her desk, but nobody I've talked to likes the book, or has even really read it. I read it and had to struggle hard to go from one page to the next. It's one of the WORST books I've ever read in any field. The book attempts to give the reader a comprehensive overview of the portfolio management discipline. Unfortunately, it's extremely dry, to the point of boring the reader to death. A lot of pages are also wasted on topics of dubious value, while important subjects like global management is treated lightly. I highly recommend against this book. It's a waste of money.

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