Amazon.com
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
Book Description
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
Customer Reviews:
Very thoughtful and enlightening book.......2007-10-02
Taleb has a winner here. The book brings a new slant to what really drives almost every trend. Often the stock traders and predictors of political events are not just wrong, but dead wrong. The reasons for these mistakes and others are explained in entertaining fashion in this book "The Black Swan".
Mr. Taleb Should Stay Away from Theology.......2007-10-01
I found this book highly entertaining. I love the way he writes, his sense humor. But I was very disappointed to see him press repeatedly his complete rejection of the Christian/Judeo understanding of the history of man, the history of God's plan for man's salvation. Ok, he has not the gift of faith. That's ok, perhaps one day. But when I purchase a book on the markets, economics, etc. I expect just that. Not repeated remarks (page 100, 118, etc.) about the non-existence of miracles, how the human race is a mere accident. Why should he be selling this ? Why should I accept his assertions ? On faith ? He's a good man wrapped in a self-contradiction of skeptiscism. I just wish his editor had filtered these things out from the final MS.
Hard to Read.......2007-09-29
I read a chapter of this book. It seemed to me it was trying to make political points (and therefore I found it untrustworthy) also it was just hard to read because I found it boring.
You have to work to separate the wheat from the chaff.......2007-09-24
There's no doubt that Nassim Taleb is a brilliant man. And, there's no doubt that he is frustrated by having to work among people who don't get it. What is there to get? Simply that the quest for certainty -- through mathematics, science or other logic disciplines -- may end up being the very thing which obfuscates the truth; that we end up not being able to see the forest for the trees. I think what he is saying is that there can never be certainty; that there will always be Black Swans...random events.
The reason why I say "I think" that is what he is saying is because there is so much stuff here -- a lot of which is totally irrelevant. He talks about his home town, seemingly just to wax nostaligic, though he may use the vignette to talk -- belaboredly -- about a point. Among the other stuff he presents is: an unusally high regard for the French language; too much - again irrelevant - reference to and back-story about thought leaders, and; palpable disdain for some colleagues in the quantitative field. If you can get through all of that and hold on to the nuggets, though, you will see some fresh thinking. Just his distinction between 2 different systems of thought is worth the work required. There are other presentations which may shift the way you think about things, too. In the end, it's worth reading, but you will have to focus on what's important because he doesn't.
Not recommended.......2007-09-21
The author expressed his strong negative options on statistics, econometrics, some finance professors, some Nobel Prize winners, etc. The whole point is that traditional stat, econ, finance techniques are mostly around the first moment (mean) but the distributions in finance tend to be non-normal and it's the risk that we should pay more attention to. That's a point few people would disagree with. What the author may not have known is that there are stat techniques out there that handle all the issues mentioned - while it's true that there's a lot of room for improvement, it's misleading to say that this is an area ignored by the academics and practitioners. While fractals are recommended, it is not clear how they can be directly applied to the area of investment finance.
There is a 2007 issue in American Statistican dedicated to the debate with the author and is highly recommended.
Book Description
In this powerful and provocative manifesto, Bill McKibben offers the biggest challenge in a generation to the prevailing view of our economy. For the first time in human history, he observes, more is no longer synonymous with better -- indeed, for many of us, they have become almost opposites. McKibben puts forward a new way to think about the things we buy, the food we eat, the energy we use, and the money that pays for it all. Our purchases, he says, need not be at odds with the things we truly value. McKibbens animating idea is that we need to move beyond growth as the paramount economic ideal and pursue prosperity in a more local direction, with cities, suburbs, and regions producing more of their own food, generating more of their own energy, and even creating more of their own culture and entertainment. He shows this concept blossoming around the world with striking results, from the burgeoning economies of India and China to the more mature societies of Europe and New England. For those who worry about environmental threats, he offers a route out of the worst of those problems; for those who wonder if there isnt something more to life than buying, he provides the insight to think about ones life as an individual and as a member of a larger community. McKibben offers a realistic, if challenging, scenario for a hopeful future. As he so eloquently shows, the more we nurture the essential humanity of our economy, the more we will recapture our own.
Customer Reviews:
If You Care for the Earth.......2007-09-29
This book is a must for anyone who wants to make a change to save the earth. The author has insight and experience about how our present course of living will lead to the destruction of the world as we know it. It's real, but there is hope and Mr McKibben shares that hope with the reader.
Useful Inefficiencies.......2007-08-29
McKibben is one of our best modern thinkers on environmentalism and conservation, ever since debuting with his classic "The End of Nature" in 1989. In this new book he has largely tackled mainstream economic theory and how it has inflicted worldwide damage on the environment and on human communities. Standard development economics suffers from an unyielding focus on efficiencies and consumption, but this more often than not leads to widespread damage and unhappiness. Planners and politicians focus obsessively on per capita utility and efficiency, and vehemently disdain anything that may reduce efficiency for some individuals but may very well improve communities and the planet. McKibben's great contribution here is his coverage of new studies of human happiness. Especially in America, we have passed the point of gaining any more happiness from increased consumption of things, and we have become largely unhappy over the ensuing loss of community and nature. A new worldwide understanding of how economics really works has become imperative - more is no longer better.
McKibben has located many useful examples around the world of communities practicing new sustainable development strategies with demonstrated benefits for all involved. Unfortunately, the areas in which such great things are happening have particular political and economic conditions that make such experiments beneficial (including the American location McKibben covers most often - politically distinctive rural Vermont). The underlying flaw in this book is that McKibben must resort to pretty wishful idealism when applying these local success stories to the world economic system. A related problem is that the second half of the book, where the rubber should be meeting the road in realistically applying the local to the global, largely degenerates into repetitive descriptions of benefits in lieu of real prescriptions for change. However, McKibben definitely deserves credit for explaining in an accessible way all the tragic flaws of mainstream economic theory (see the books and articles he cites for the real lowdown), and it's about time us regular folks resisted the power players - for the benefit of ourselves and our larger community. [~doomsdayer520~]
Turbines and Prayer Wheels.......2007-08-06
This is a wonderful book that swings your emotions from despair to joy and back. I marveled over the story of the village of Gorasin in Bangladesh where the people said no to pesticides after living with their devastating effects and the village has become an organic oases. That is the theme of the book, communities with members from near or far working together to make lives better.
McKibben mentions Heifer International, one of my favorite organizations, and their impact on one man in China with the donation of 48 rabbits and lots of technical advice and the wave of change in his community because of his successful rabbit enterprise.
A group called Future Generations trained some villagers in Tibet and the villagers devised and installed a system that carried water "through a series of split-bamboo pipes, and then through a turbine that used the dynamo from a junked car. A hydrology expert could have helped them build a more efficient system, but all the locals knew how to repair this setup."".....(Also, the hydrology expert might not have thought to use the water pouring out of the turbine to spin a prayer wheel.)"
World community - helping local people meld the old and the new.
But, McKibben asserts, it is time for the haves of the world to share more than knowledge, it is time to cut back on what we use. "Most obviously, if the rich world began making less extreme demands on the planet, poor countries would have more physical margin to work with - a little slack. ...If we Americans can use less coal and gas and oil, we'll in effect free some of the atmosphere to absorb the carbon that the poor world must emit to meet basic needs."
There is so much more in this book to ponder and act on, put it high on your reading list.
Quite a scary future.......2007-07-23
Wow, makes me want to move to Vermont and become an organic farmer. I found this book to bring up some very good points about our current unsustainable economic situation. Over the past 300 years we have created an economic "machine" based on efficiency and production that will be very hard to change intentionally. McKibben offers some ideas on what the new New Deal will need to be if we want to continue a sustainable economy, which includes taking everything back to a local scale. Food, work, consumer goods need to develop inside the community where one lives. Less efficiency, more community and "neighborliness". It's a great idea. I just wonder if people will choose this before the collapse of our current system or try to figure something out after it's too late. I pesimistically think the latter.
Growing Smaller.......2007-07-11
The main premise of this book is that the local economy is the deeper economy. Thus the healthier and wealthier community. Bill McKibben hardly ever deals in the abstract, rather he is constantly giving examples and providing illustrations of how this type of economy gets practiced locally. He describes the little experiments of living locally . . . such as one winter how he canned all of his food ahead of time and only ate things within a local radius. His goal is to make a connection between the local community and the economy. He spends a good portion of his time sharing about the relationships he has formed in his quest to shop and consume on a local scale. Consequently, the value of relationships in driving and sustaining a healthy economy are focused on a lot. It's not some over-romanticized look back into the past and the way things used to be. Rather it's an imaginative redreaming of how one can exist both in urban and suburban settings at a local level, valuing relationships and health over fast and easy. The book is extremely insightful and a moderately easy read. And well worth it.
Amazon.com
"Learning the game of power requires a certain way of looking at the world, a shifting of perspective," writes Robert Greene. Mastery of one's emotions and the arts of deception and indirection are, he goes on to assert, essential. The 48 laws outlined in this book "have a simple premise: certain actions always increase one's power ... while others decrease it and even ruin us."
The laws cull their principles from many great schemers--and scheming instructors--throughout history, from Sun-Tzu to Talleyrand, from Casanova to con man Yellow Kid Weil. They are straightforward in their amoral simplicity: "Get others to do the work for you, but always take the credit," or "Discover each man's thumbscrew." Each chapter provides examples of the consequences of observance or transgression of the law, along with "keys to power," potential "reversals" (where the converse of the law might also be useful), and a single paragraph cleverly laid out to suggest an image (such as the aforementioned thumbscrew); the margins are filled with illustrative quotations. Practitioners of one-upmanship have been given a new, comprehensive training manual, as up-to-date as it is timeless.
Book Description
Amoral, cunning, ruthless, and instructive, this piercing work distills three thousand years of the history of power in to forty-eight well explicated laws. As attention--grabbing in its design as it is in its content, this bold volume outlines the laws of power in their unvarnished essence, synthesizing the philosophies of Machiavelli, Sun-tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, and other great thinkers. Some laws teach the need for prudence ("Law 1: Never Outshine the Master"), the virtue of stealth ("Law 3: Conceal Your Intentions"), and many demand the total absence of mercy ("Law 15: Crush Your Enemy Totally"), but like it or not, all have applications in real life. Illustrated through the tactics of Queen Elizabeth I, Henry Kissinger, P. T. Barnum, and other famous figures who have wielded--or been victimized by--power, these laws will fascinate any reader interested in gaining, observing, or defending against ultimate control.
Customer Reviews:
Disgusting! Don't buy this book!.......2007-10-06
If you want a guide on how to be manipulative, amoral and corrupt at everyone else's expense...this is for you. As for me, I was disgusted from page one....it goes completely against everything I believe in. "Never put too much trust in friends" ...must be awfully lonely in such a world where you can trust no one. Perhaps that's because you've stabbed everyone in the back. This "looking out for #1" at all costs is what is wrong with the world today. If any book EVER deserved to be burned...this is it!
Portrays a realistic view of the world while rising up in power........2007-09-16
When I first acquired this book, I delved into the text and was fascinated by what is never taught in school, hardly at work, even with people; as this book states wisely, many people would like to keep to themselves and therefore many who have power hardly share it, unless a deal is behind it. The book itself may be a paradox in parts, and the methods used may be controversial; yet it has the essential basic "training" in order to strive to the top.
Sometimes one wonders if this will work, or does this author fool us into purchasing this book. It may show a pessimistic world of beguile, secrecy, envy and greed; however this portrays a realistic view of the world while rising up in power.
Brilliantly written, with worthy examples of great thinkers, philosophers and military officials of history; this concise edition will keep you on the ground reading, whilst teaching you how to propel in the air and on top of the world.
USMC- Commandant's reading list.......2007-07-25
In the interest of full disclosure, I'm Army - 16yrs. From 2000 thru 2006 I was stationed in Okinawa and the best place for all service members to buy books so deployed (Amazon aside) was from the bookstore on Camp Foster (across from the movie theatre). For at least a good 6 months (in 2002) this book was prominently featured on the shelves with a tag identifying it as having made the USMC Commandant's Reading List (or, a book senior commisioned Marine Corps leadership consider beneficial to Marines (enlisted and commisioned) seeking guidance on professional development). Intrigued, I bought it. I won't go into a lengthy review here: in a nutshell; the book lists a series of TTPs (tactics, techniques and procedures) designed to maximize one's advantage when negotiating interpersonal realationships both professional and personal. Some of these TTPs involve elements of manipulation, subterfuge, and dishonesty that clearly cross the boundaries of unethical behavior. It bothered me not just a little that Marines or Soldiers (young and old) might consider using the advice in this book as means of advancing their careers or solidifying leadership positions within their respective units.
I do know some of the book's reccomendations are in direct conflict with The Army Values, and according to at least two USMC Staff NCOs (both good friends) this is also the case regarding their own code of professional conduct. One of the Marines in question wrote a letter (to whom -I don't know) expressing his concern. A few months later the book assumed a less prominent residence on the shelves. Nonetheless; I never failed to see it lodged in the odd bookshelf in someone's (usually an officer) professional space - from time to time. I consider its presence an indicator for stepping up one's vigilance when dealing with the books's owner.
Fabulous!.......2007-07-20
I bought this book for a good friend of mine, and he said it's excellent reading. I also bought him Blood On The Altar, which he took a peek at, and he said he looks forward to reading that as well.
Really Good Read.......2007-07-18
I thought the book was absolutely relevant to today even though the examples in most of the 48 laws were from historical occurances throughout history. Robert Greene blends many different learning methods, including fables, poetry, as well as regular prose to convey general life lessons that many of us learn the hard way. Some laws of power may be deemed unethical, while other simple, but the point is each and every one is true and relevant to accumulating power. By using this book you can protect yourself from extremely ambitious people, while executing your own ambitions as well. Great read to understanding the human psyche and its quest to be ambitious.
Customer Reviews:
Get the 7th edition, instead........2007-09-13
This is an older edition of the book. Get the newer, seventh edition. The ISBN for the 7th edition is 0321451341.
An important and useful text for understanding trade theory.......2006-02-27
Krugman and Obstfeld, two world renowned international economists, provide a full detailed analysis and examples for the basis of trade among nations. It is relatively straightforward to comprehend for both economists and noneconomists. International trade is an important component of economic policy for the growth and development of countries. This book examines various theoretical trade models and provides real world examples of policy formulation and their impact. The authors do not take any political positions, thus making their analysis a purely objective, or positive study.
I would highly recommend this book to students interested in doing research in international trade and development. It is a must read for prospective international economists. Noneconomists might also find it as a useful reference. I found the book to be invaluable in my graduate research and dissertation.
Krugman.......2006-02-25
Some complicated theories explained in a way that can be understood.
Esay flow from a concept to the next.
Not What I've Come to Expect from Krugman.......2005-04-03
First off, even if you totally discount the rest of my review, buy the low price international version of this book. On the March 10, 2005 episode of the daily show Krugman elucidated his feelings quite clearly. "The real money is in textbooks. With other books, people need to decide whether to buy them or not. Students have to buy textbooks." Thanks Paul. I think I'm being charitable when I say that at $125 this book is a ripoff. It isn't even full color.
Anyway, on to the actual content of the book. I have to say that I was excited when I found out that my International economics course at Stanford was going to be using Paul Krugman's book. I've enjoyed his articles for the New York Times because they manage to cut right to the core of issues with an unusual amount of punch. Yet, time and time again I was disappointed with the frequently inpenatrable language and obtuse, unrealistic examples in this book. Unfortunately, the only part of Krugman's characteristic writing style that came through was a feeling of overwrought vitriol, which makes sense in an op-ed but has little place in a textbook. Furthermore, this book occupies a strange niche in the world of econ texts, it is not mathematically rigorous, nor is it well written. Usually we see one or the other but rarely both. Initially, I thought these observations were mine alone, but other students began openly voicing pointed criticisms of the book during class (and I am perhaps being too kind here in not repeating them). I've been in school nearly as long as I can remember and I have never seen such discontent with a text.
During the second half of the course even my econ prof became fed up and abandoned the book altogether. Given that, I find all of the positive reviews for this book rather astounding. My suspicion is that there might have been open rebellion amongst my classmates had not the professor decided to leave this text by the wayside. I also found that it is brimming with misplaced, one-sided arguments that come across as Krugman blatantly strawmanning arguments opposed to his own. One of many examples of this comes out of nowhere near the end of chapter 2. Krugman implies that anyone who doesn't believe in unmitigated free trade is intellectually irresponsible!?! This book pushes for unrestrained market fundamentalism throughout, primarily by misrepresenting any arguments that would effectively challenge it's simplistic and seemingly outdated dogma. This book, in particular, feeds into the same system of self serving scientism so prevalent in economics for the last 60 years.
Please don't mistake this review as the bile of a jilted student, I did quite well in the course. However, this is almost certainly the result of looking for alternative explanations of virtually every topic covered. The reason this book gets one star instead of two is because it lacks a lot of the modern learning tools prevalent in almost every other textbook. Things like quality questions, keywords, vocabulary and historical context all get short shrift in this this volume. If you're into learning about incomplete models that only represent a theoretical version of the world, this book is for you. Unfortunately, just like Krugman said on The Daily Show, if you are a student there is probably little chance that you have a choice on the matter. Buy the cheap international edition for 20 bucks. I would recommend that you use to the difference to buy William Easterly's Elusive Quest for Growth...and a beer.
The Undergraduate International Economics Standard.......2004-06-29
Well, I will start off by saying that the book really probably only deserves somewhere between 4-4.5 stars, but I'll give it 5 to offset some of the questionable reviews below.
No, the book is not perfect. However, it is an academic standard at pretty much any major college or university for teaching undergraduate International Econ/Trade theory, and for good reason. The book makes a clear a concise presentation of basic theory and policy, perhaps in points it is a little too simple. As pointed out, while I'm not sure about the 6th edition, there were some diagrammatical mistakes in the 5th...I bet, however, these were done by a graduate student. A quick bit of reasoning and a second of thought should yield the appropriate picture, however. And yes, I think a bit of Krugman's bias comes through, though its not terribly off-putting.
The book could use a bit more math I think. The real equations and difficult problems are few and far between, and are, for the most part, pretty straight forward. At the very most it would take a basic understanding of calculus, but the majority of the problems and equations can be explained and done without it. I have read a number of undergraduate economics books with far more intensive math. Despite this lack, however, the intentions come across pretty well.
No, this book is not for beginners to economics. At least an undergraduate course or reading in both micro and macro are needed, and really and truly, an intermediate level in each is probably better if one wants to get the most out of the book.
If you find the subject matter within to be terribly math intensive and you cannot get motivated to read the subject matter because it doesn't use "pizza and beer" (and um...I don't think I'd want an imported pizza anyway, but thanks), well I guess the subject and this book are not for you. However, if you are trying to enrich your understanding of economics at a very basic level, this book provides a good way to do so.
And, if you want graduate level book, and like Obstfeld, I recommend he and Rogoff's book.
Book Description
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining.
Customer Reviews:
Fantastic!.......2007-09-26
Just wanted to add to the praise of this book. If you're not following the backtesting practice of this book then you're playing slots with your trading (hey, maybe you'll get lucky!!). Some of the material is tough going and will require a second reading, but it'll be worth it. As another reviewer said about this being a kind of in-depth follow on to "Fooled by Randomness", I couldn't agree more. As matter of fact it's what I read just prior, so I couldn't help smiling as I went through this book, because he was putting the meat on the plate that Nassim set! Thank you, thank you..
The previous reviewer (Useless..) that gave it one star clearly did not get the concepts of the book. Did he even read it? That review does not compute. The *only* negative I would say is that if you're just looking for how to do robust backtesting, then the extensive material on the scientific method might be a bit much (but you can always read lightly those sections). But I understand why he put it in there, since it's the entire premise of taking a different and more rigorous approach to TA.
Now back to re-reading Chapter 6... Thank you Mr. Aronson!
Useless.......2007-08-29
I found this book useless..a total waste of time and money.Instead of analyzing the results obtained by using the various technical indicators,the author simply trashes their use,and does so in a preverse use of mathematical formulas,from which the reader gains nothing.I truly felt like my money was taken,for the purchase of the book,under false pretenses.
Make backtesting meaningful.......2007-08-24
Most trading books are pseudoscience or entertaining reminiscences of successful traders. Aronson has done an admirable job of applying the requisite rigor to the many difficulties associated with analyzing the results of historical backtesting.
Best for professional, intellectual and philosophical trading system developers.......2007-08-08
I had thought of using another review title "For fans and followers of Victor Niederhoffer" as inspired by his praise on the front cover. Pardon me to assume the following: if you had not heard of Niederhoffer, the chance is high that you have no prior experience/idea of testing the statistical significance of various TA tools, nor dwelling into the philosophical/scientific aspects of TA at all. Please accept the fact that this book is not for you. For trading professionals who deem themselves philosophical and intellectual (preferably with a college level of knowledge on statistics), this book is an inspiration. Highly recommended!
A must-have for TA practitioners.......2007-08-01
This book shakes some of your most deep beliefs in TA - and this is a healthy thing. Read it with an open mind.
Amazon.com
How is the human brain like the AIDS epidemic? Ask physicist Albert-László Barabási and he'll explain them both in terms of networks of individual nodes connected via complex but understandable relationships. Linked: The New Science of Networks is his bright, accessible guide to the fundamentals underlying neurology, epidemiology, Internet traffic, and many other fields united by complexity.
Barabási's gift for concrete, nonmathematical explanations and penchant for eccentric humor would make the book thoroughly enjoyable even if the content weren't engaging. But the results of Barabási's research into the behavior of networks are deeply compelling. Not all networks are created equal, he says, and he shows how even fairly robust systems like the Internet could be crippled by taking out a few super-connected nodes, or hubs. His mathematical descriptions of this behavior are helping doctors, programmers, and security professionals design systems better suited to their needs. Linked presents the next step in complexity theory--from understanding chaos to practical applications. --Rob Lightner
Book Description
A cocktail party. A terrorist cell. Ancient bacteria. An international conglomerate.
All are networks, and all are a part of a surprising scientific revolution. Albert-László Barabási, the nation's foremost expert in the new science of networks, takes us on an intellectual adventure to prove that social networks, corporations, and living organisms are more similar than previously thought. Grasping a full understanding of network science will someday allow us to design blue-chip businesses, stop the outbreak of deadly diseases, and influence the exchange of ideas and information. Just as James Gleick brought the discovery of chaos theory to the general public, Linked tells the story of the true science of the future.
Customer Reviews:
Not deep enough (?).......2007-06-23
For some reasons both this one and 'The Tipping point' didn't really appeal to me. As an example in this book there is this attempt to superimpose the 'Bose Einstein condensation' to network properties. I personally didn't see any beef there
Network theory and its applications.......2007-06-07
After reading Mitchel Resnick's Turtles, Termites, and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds (Complex Adaptive Systems), my exploration of decentralized networks went down a very viral path. This book, in particular, discusses the application of network theory in the context of its historical significance. The author explores how it can be used as a tool and device to understand cities, computer networks social networks, human-human interactions (speech), human-computer interactions (HCI), computer-computer interactions (protocol), diseases, computer viruses, nature. Based on this book and its related siblings, it inspires tremendous amounts of ideas for the next big thing in marketing strategy.
Superb popular science: the laws of networks........2007-04-14
Networks all have a meaningful similarity. Whether the network at hand is a party, a cell's molecular reaction, or the puzzling old bridges of Königsberg, Prussia, you could describe each one by using a branch of mathematics called "graph theory," invented by Leonhard Euler in 1736. His long-dormant concept bloomed in the 1990s with the advent of the Internet and continues to yield insights into many important problems. Sounds a bit dry? Don't worry. Albert-László Barabási writes in a lively style (there's nary an equation in sight) with fun, informative anecdotes. The tale of how he and other scientists discovered "the laws of networks" unfolds like a detective story. After reading this book, you'll see networks everywhere and gain deeper insight into disparate phenomena, from biological systems to business organizations to the economics of "increasing returns." We recommend this clear, accessible book to anyone who has ever wondered about the ubiquitous webs that encompass all things. This is popular science at its best.
Great for the layman.......2007-04-11
One of the best books I've read about the subject, especially good for those being introduced to the subject of graph theory and network thinking. One of the few technical page-turners I've had the pleasure to enjoy! Really, could not put it down!
If you liked Freakonomics..........2007-01-12
...then you'll love the connections drawn in this text. It more than touches on the realities of "Six Degrees of Separation" (as well as Kevin Bacon!)in an interesting, readable format. You don't need to be a scientist or a mathematition to understand the links, networks, and nodes assessed in this book.
I must admit that it started out a bit slow, but I recommend you stick it out for an enlightening outlook on the interconnectivity of everything.
Book Description
Survive and Thrive As a Nurse from Day One!
Welcome to the compassionate and caring world of nursing! You are entering a profession that offers great rewards and endless opportunities. But you must prepare for the challenges ahead and do everything you can to ensure that you experience the best that nursing has to offer. This invaluable book will get you started!
Written by an experienced R.N., Your First Year As a Nurse provides practical, real-world solutions to the profession's most common and difficult issues. Inside, you'll find out what you really need to know, who you need to know, how to avoid missteps, and where you can go for help when you need it. Gritty, witty, and full of invaluable tips and advice from first year nurses, this book is your personal mentor for your new career.
Ensure a healthy first year by knowing how to:
·Acquire the job that's perfect for you
·Create your own patient-centered style of nursing
·Develop positive relationships with doctors, patients, and other nurses
·Stay positive, deal with conflict and adversity, and avoid burnout
·Network, enhance your education and career, and become a leader
"Combines common sense with the wisdom of a seasoned professional. A valuable resource for new graduates as they begin practice."—Lucille A. Joel, R.N., Ed.D., FAAN, professor, Rutgers College of Nursing, and former president, American Nurses Association
"A must-read for all nurses, not just new graduates!"—Joan Orseck, R.N., president, National Association for Health Care Recruitment
Customer Reviews:
not really helpful if you've already graduated..........2007-08-16
I just graduated with my RN, BSN in May. I passed boards in July. I've been considering buying this book for several months, but just purchased it last week. I am disappointed. I mainly just skimmed through the book because it was not interesting at all. The majority of advice is common sense or things that I've already learned either in nursing school, in my job as a nurse extern, or as an RN. Save your money. The main thing the book concentrates on is networking. Joining groups and attending meetings. As a new graduate, I think you're too overwhelmed to jump into this stuff right away.
Your First Year as a Nurse.......2007-06-04
Timely, sensible, practical, & reassuring info for new nurses entering hospital nursing.
This book saved my career in the first months and beyond!.......2007-03-01
I have seen Donna speak several times. My most memorable was the first time hearing her speak at the National Student Nurse Association convention. She was so inspirational and helpful. Donna personally signed a copy of this book that book got me through some of my roughest times as a new nurse. Yes, her advise is logical common knowledge to some, but when your are new to a profession and somewhat timid, the words are a great gift of help! Thank you Donna for helping me survive my first year. Now, 5 years later, I am a thriving nurse that continues to reference the book at times as a refresher. I also encourage as many new grads as I can to read it.
Nursing is so fortunate to have a person like Donna to positively promote the profession.
Additionally, I educate nurses about bullying and typically refer my audience to Donna's site and her article "Do Nurses Really Eat Their Young." It's a great article and I agree with Donna wholly that there truly are more helping nurses than bullies. Unfortunately those few bullies have a large impact on the nursing profession. I attempt to help nurses "bully-proof" themselves and see there are ways to avoid the bullies and those bullies are not the majority in nursing. Donna has encouraged me in this endeavor. She also encouraged me to reinforce to my audience the new mantra she would like to create for nursing..."Nurses nurture their own."
All in all, what I have tried to get across to you here is:
1.) Nursing is a great profession,
2.) Donna is a great mentor for nurses,
3.) THIS BOOK IS A MUST READ!
Buy this book as early as your can, even if still in nursing school.......2006-12-09
Over the weekend I purchased Your First Year As a Nurse: Making the
Transition from Total Novice to Successful Professional because I wanted
a new start. Let me just say that 1) it was money well spent and 2)
purchasing this book should be made a mandatory requirement to any
student who starts a nursing program.
So far, I have read half the book. Already I have found some renewed
energy, and my enthusiasm about nursing is increasing again. I
graduated five months ago and took a job in an ICU where I have been working for four months and half months. Recently, I made the decision to leave the ICU.
I am starting in a step down unit tomorrow and I am very excited about
starting over. I experienced all of the following prior to making this
decision: frustration, fatigue, anxiety, dreading going to work, fear of
making mistakes, and many other emotions. Had I read your book prior to
starting this position, I could have avoided this painful period in my
nursing career. Of course, I have learned many valuable lessons. But I
do think nursing would earn a better reputation if newcomers did not have
to go through this experience. And I know that I am not the only one who has felt this way. I have read countless numbers of blogs on the internet of new grads who described the same feelings I shared earlier.
Thank you Ms. Cardlille for all the wonderful advice that you have shared. I joined the ANA today and contacted my state's Nurse Association regarding future events. I am looking forward to networking because you make it sound so much fun and rewarding. Please continue the work that you are doing. You are very inspiring to new nurses.
A grateful new grad.
Prescription for Success.......2006-07-07
An outstanding resource filled with valuable nuggets of information. From staying organized, becoming a team member, and developing clinical proficiency through the guidance of a capable preceptor, to taking care of yourself, networking and planning for career advancement, Ms. Cardillo covers it all. Your First Year As a Nurse is a significant prescription for success for all nurses and nursing students who desire to bloom and grow professionally.
Average customer rating:
- It might be a good finance book,
- superb coverage of subject matter
- good but not excellent
- Good book to understand quantitative finance
- Investment Science must have
|
Investment Science
David G. Luenberger
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
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Similar Items:
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Options, Futures and Other Derivatives (6th Edition)
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Enterprise Risk Management: From Incentives to Controls
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Stochastic Calculus for Finance II: Continuous-Time Models (Springer Finance)
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Introduction to Probability Models, Ninth Edition
-
Heard on the Street: Quantitative Questions from Wall Street Job Interviews
ASIN: 0195108094 |
Book Description
Fueled in part by some extraordinary theoretical developments in finance, an explosive growth of information and computing technology, and the global expansion of investment activity, investment theory currently commands a high level of intellectual attention. Recent developments in the field are being infused into university classrooms, financial service organizations, business ventures, and into the awareness of many individual investors. Modern investment theory using the language of mathematics is now an essential aspect of academic and practitioner training. Representing a breakthrough in the organization of finance topics, Investment Science will be an indispensable tool in teaching modern investment theory. It presents sound fundamentals and shows how real problems can be solved with modern, yet simple, methods. David Luenberger gives thorough yet highly accessible mathematical coverage of standard and recent topics of introductory investments: fixed-income securities, modern portfolio theory and capital asset pricing theory, derivatives (futures, options, and swaps), and innovations in optimal portfolio growth and valuation of multiperiod risky investments. Throughout the book, he uses mathematics to present essential ideas of investments and their applications in business practice. The creative use of binomial lattices to formulate and solve a wide variety of important finance problems is a special feature of the book. In moving from fixed-income securities to derivatives, Luenberger increases naturally the level of mathematical sophistication, but never goes beyond algebra, elementary statistics/probability, and calculus. He includes appendices on probability and calculus at the end of the book for student reference. Creative examples and end-of-chapter exercises are also included to provide additional applications of principles given in the text. Ideal for investment or investment management courses in finance, engineering economics, operations research, and management science departments, Investment Science has been successfully class-tested at Boston University, Stanford University, and the University of Strathclyde, Scotland, and used in several firms where knowledge of investment principles is essential. Executives, managers, financial analysts, and project engineers responsible for evaluation and structuring of investments will also find the book beneficial. The methods described are useful in almost every field, including high-technology, utilities, financial service organizations, and manufacturing companies.
Customer Reviews:
It might be a good finance book,.......2007-08-14
but it's a terrible math book.
Too often, explanations, examples, and problems do not clearly explain the meanings of variables and applicable assumptions. This poor presentation of material makes the book barely usable to someone trying to learn the material for the first time.
superb coverage of subject matter.......2007-07-30
Prof. Luenberger currently teaches at Stanford and this book is used as the textbook for a 2-quarter series in investment science there. The coverage is concise and the math is manageable and yet extremely practical. I agree that this an excellent self-study book in the subject of investment science.
good but not excellent.......2007-03-15
This book serves very good introduction to mathematical finance. Particularly,
I enjoyed the discussion of bonds immunization, mean-variance theory, CAPM, APT.
It's most suitable for senior undergraduates or any junior graduate students.
But it doesn't deserve 5 star for the following reasons:
1) Most of the theories discussed so far in the book are TOO idealized and
over simplified. Financial data is dynamic and massive. In model quantitative/computational finance, the most important thing is to understand what the data says rather than what one thinks the data structure might be. With the book, one probably can only do some macroeconomic/very coarse analysis. Author should incorporate more data analysis evidence together with proposed theories.
2) The proof of ito's lemma is wrong(i.e. "Deltaz^2 --> deterministic as Deltat --> 0"). It's surprising since most books make the same mistake. It is the law of the large number contributes to the equality!(i.e. integration sense). The misunderstanding of the proof might lead to the misunderstanding of the hedging process.
3) In the commodity option pricing session, author demonstrated the use of futher market to price the option. This should be discussed further (i.e. black's model).
4) The volatility pumping session should be further researched. The explanation is
not satisfactory.
Good book to understand quantitative finance.......2005-06-10
Luenberger was a professor of optimization and his books on that subject are also very good. Clear and Precise. But sometimes he is extremely concise, so that you need to work a bit to completely understand a point.
In this book, we have again the same style (after all, it is the author style): Clear and precise book, GOOD choice of notation (I cant say the same thing about HULL's books) but sometimes extremely concise.
Overall, a good book to start learning and on a solid foundation.
Investment Science must have.......2005-03-24
Great book, covers lots of material and goes beyond by using the log utility to portfolio growth. Great buy!!!!
Average customer rating:
- Calculations are only as good as your numbers
- Pants on fire?
- Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed.
- Very Interesting
- History as Science Fiction
|
History: Fiction or Science? (Chronology, No. 1)
Anatoly Fomenko
Manufacturer: Mithec
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Similar Items:
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History: Fiction or Science? Chronology 2 (Chronology)
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History: Fiction or Science? Astronomical methods as applied to chronology. Ptolemy's Almagest. Chronology III
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Discovering the Mysteries of Ancient America: Lost History And Legends, Unearthed And Explored
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They Cast No Shadows: A Collection of Essays on the Illuminati, Revisionist History, and Suppressed Technologies
ASIN: 2913621058 |
Book Description
Recorded history is a finely-woven magic fabric of intricate lies about events predating the sixteenth century. There is not a single piece of evidence that can be reliably and independently traced back earlier than the eleventh century. This book details events that are substantiated by hard facts and logic, and validated by new astronomical research and statistical analysis of ancient sources.
Customer Reviews:
Calculations are only as good as your numbers.......2007-08-03
Yes, we can all agree that mainstream history is nearly 100% BS due to politics, economics, ego, problems with dating techniques, and various conspiracies. Agreed. But, I've been researching the distinct possibility that human history (in terms of civilizations) are much more ancient than we've been told, so coming across this book was very interesting to me. I wondered how Fomenko could be wrong (if at all) because he is very persuasive in his presentations. Then it dawned on me. If at previous times in prehistory, due to the various catastrophies that are well documented (comets, asteroids, planetary disruptions, plasma discharge, pole reversals, etc) the Earth was in a different position in relation to the sun, different tilt on its axis, different orbit, different rotation (in terms of velocity and DIRECTION), and the continents were in different positions, then would this not cause the ancients to see the sky (constellations) differently? In other words, is Fomenko making erronious assumptions about the physics of the Earth in pre-history, which then corrupt his data with regards to dating the relevant astrology? The last event to seriously disrupt our planet occured roughly 3500 years ago, according to other good researchers, so is it possible Fomenko has been confused by this? The vastly different physics of our planet in the not so distant past may explain this confusion, which is not to say the "mainstream" version of history is correct; on the contrary. I am not an expert in these fields, but wanted to see if this idea could spark discussion.
Pants on fire?.......2007-07-19
Will people ever read before spamming? Yes, Jesuits could not rewrite world history alone, they had help. Anyway, Dr Prof Acad A.Fomenko does not point to jesuits as the driving force of world wide history manipulation in published volumes 1,2,3;, actually he barely mentions the poor devils. Check it with 'Search inside' feature, please. China is rarely mentioned either, in fact, Dr Fomenko is completely eurocentric. Right, his theory contradicts all mainstream schools of history, because in their actual state they are all built on blatantly erroneus chronology. You don't need a mysterious cabal (conspiracy) to falsify history, the falsification is its modus operandi. It is inherent to history(ians) to falsify (distort) events, as it is inherent to humans to boast as it is inherent to power (authority) to legimize itself by referrring to glorious past made to its own order. Dr Prof Fomenko and team have identified scores of instances of such manipulation in Russian, European, etc.. history, and delivered valid statistical proof thereof. His own 'reconstruction' is completely another story. Forget c14 as a valid method of dating. W.Libby has initially discovered a brilliant method of INDEPENDENT dating. Too bad, c14 method has become a joke after a forced marrige with dendrochronology with consensual chronological scale inbuilt. Radiocarbon method can't stand blind tests, but is so very productive as a rubberstamp.
Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed. .......2007-04-09
There is no doubt that history as most know it is a sham, & institution's version of History both University & Church is fradulent & inaccurate. Everything was established with an agenda, The real "Dark Ages" are now when we have access to incredible amounts of information past authorities & more important 'common folk' didn't have but our institutions & educators are slow to evolve because of what has ignorantly & arrogantly been taught for too long. This is on many subjects not just Chronology.
For anyone to question "Why would a Mathematician have anything credible to say of History?" The answer is from Dr. Fomenko's preface in the book: "It would be worthwhile to remind the reader that in the XVI-XVII century Chronology was considered to be a subdivision of Mathematics." These volumes could possibly be some of the most important works to date & should be read by everyone with an interest in History, especially professors & educators who have a duty to the public. I have read both books & must say that 'Chronology 1' has some very eye opening & revolutionary information. Even if these volumes are part true the implications are profound & opens the doors to further investigations & questions which must be done. I speak several different lanquages & must say the logic Dr. Fomenko uses with "inflection" of words & words being read from left to right in one region & right to left in another then written backwards, the removal of vowels & get down to basics of words, or different cities & locations having the same name etc. is correct. Vowel usage has always been optional & varied, actually complicating linquistics & study. The first thing one has to understand is that words never had a fixed spelling in history like we do now, the spelling of words was mutable & regional, as well as names & titles of people were vast, varied & changed, NOTHING WAS FIXED or understood linear. Matters of Life & Death as well as financial profiteering yesterday & today were & are made with ignorant, illogical & conspiratorial views of history & reality, it's time people get closer to the Truth & society collectively grow up.
Very Interesting.......2007-03-07
It is a good proposal and I believe it will mature into something even better in the future. I think it deserves to be read.
History as Science Fiction.......2007-01-10
Anatoly Fomenko has written a very intriguing book, full of pictures, charts, and computer 'proof' of his thesis: backwards of AD900 we don't really know what happened or when. Between AD900 and AD1600 there is more certainty, but there is still a lot of fuzzy ground, and things don't get reliable until we get past the 1600's where the printing press made it very difficult for the perpetrators of this timeline manipulation to change anything that had been committed to print. The Dark Ages did not happen. Books were burned for a reason. One organization has doubled the actual length of its existence by expanding the real chronology. Read why.
I had always wondered why Christ died about AD33 and yet men waited until the 11th century to form the Knights Templar, the Cathars, etc and go after the Holy Land by force. Why the 1000 year gap? Turns out there wasn't more than a 10-12 year gap and he proves it using astronomy. This also implies that the planet is not as old as we have been told, and current Christian and other creationist scientists are already championing that idea without being aware of Fomenko's book. The two groups, creationist scientists and the Russian mathematical analysts corroborate each other. Fascinating.
Of course, all this flies in the face of what we have been told traditionally is the 'proper' chronology of western civilization, and most readers will experience 'cognitive dissonance' in reading this book. It means that our history going backwards from AD1600 becomes progressively more incorrect and unreliable until it cannot be trusted at all... in the space of 700-800 years.
Naturally, the curious, open-minded reader will want to know WHO did this, WHY, and did any of the events we think of as really ancient ever happen?
Dr. Fomenko is a respected scientist/mathematician at Moscow State University who has already answered these questions to the satisfaction of his initially skeptical colleagues. Most of them are now believers, a few still refuse to believe (the usual diehards), and of course the western press has ignored Fomenko's work -- for obvious reasons when you read the book. The ones who perpetrated this chronology ruse have a lot to answer for. They are still with us. That's why this book is a well-kept secret.
I gave the book a 4-star rating because I was unable to check out some of his claims; those I checked were as he said. But if even 1/3 of his claims are true, this punches a big hole in what we think is our history, the meaning of western civilization, our educational process (for repeating the ruse as gospel), and the trustworthiness of the organization that perpetrated this ruse, well-intentioned or not.
This book relates to current research into a Young Earth paradigm, to John Keel's discoveries about our planet, and Fr Malachi Martin's insights (in his now out-of-print books). We are indeed sheep who are manipulated and kept ignorant -- for a reason. While knowing what these men have to say may be the "booby prize" (as in: 'what can you do with this knowledge?'), it will provide interesting reading. Didn't someone say: "...and the Truth will set you free."?? For you to judge if this book contains the truth.
Book Description
This comprehensive and balanced book gives a thorough treatment of the most prominent issues of business ethics and the major positions and arguments on these issues.
An abundance of case studies help illustrate topics such as: whistle-blowing, discrimination and affirmative action, occupational health and safety, ethics in finance, and ethics in international business.
For professionals in the field who want an up-to-date discussion of the most prominent issues of business ethics.
Customer Reviews:
Outline review........2007-05-21
This product did not meet my expectation in any way. The description is very misleading, it is just a book of terms, there are no outlines or information that is useful is in studying. More than half of the terms are not even useful in the chapters that they are listed in.
Business Ethics.......2007-01-09
This is a good book to start studying the Business Ethics. Kind of convoluted to learn about the business ethics theories. The cases presented are very well described and right to the point based on the topics covered.
A great primer on business and ethics..........2005-08-02
Ethics is one of the topics that can be very stimulating or very dry. Fortunately, John R. Boatright is able to present a very engaging discussion filled with critical thinking, and practical examples. The examples mentioned are relevant and timely to any contemporary discussion of ethical issues in business. As a student of business, I commend any person interested in the topic to delve inside this great piece.
Very satisfied!.......2003-08-15
Shipment was timely and well packaged. Thank you! Will buy again
Excellent teaching text.......2001-02-16
Have used this text (2nd and now 3rd editions)to teach business ethics classes at the graduate and undergraduate levels for several years. It is well written and popular with students. Case studies represent the spectrum of ethics issues found in business today. The foundational ethics theory is clearly articulated, appropriate and sufficient.
Books:
- The Commanding Heights: The Battle Between Government and the Marketplace That Is Remaking the Modern World
- The Communist Manifesto (Signet Classics)
- The Condition of Postmodernity: An Enquiry into the Origins of Cultural Change
- The Economics of Exchange Rates
- The Economics of Natural Resource Use (2nd Edition)
- The Ethical Consumer
- The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Great Minds Series)
- The Global Class War : How America's Bipartisan Elite Lost Our Future - and What It Will Take to Win it Back
- The Lean Pocket Guide
- The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization
Books Index
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The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World
The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich
Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders
A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation
