Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis : A Systems Engineering Perspective

Book Description

A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and professional anecdotes, case studies, results, observations, and interpretations that clarify the challenges in cost risk analysis. It includes references, equations, and illustrations, provides theoretical and applied exercises, and uses examples and case discussions derived from systems engineering projects to describe key concepts.

Customer Reviews:

Best technical book written yet, on this subject.......2003-12-12

Well written and very thorough in its treatment of how probability methods are used to quantify cost risk; excellent textbook for students (lots of exercises), as well as for professional cost analysts.

A Must Book for Engineers and Engineering Managers!.......2000-07-08

This is a must book for engineers, scientists, and engineering managers. Garvey's book presents how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The work is a first of its kind in the engineering, cost engineering/analysis, and operations research communities.

The book provides readers a clear discussion on the nature of uncertainty, how it affects the cost of a systems engineering project, and how probability methods are used to model, measure, and control risk from a systems engineering perspective. Readers benefit from the numerous mathematical and professional anecdotes, case discussions, results, observations, and interpretations found throughout the chapters.

Book Description

This popular book supplies readers with the latest principles and techniques for the evaluation of engineering design. The emphasis is on analysis and estimating. Included in this new edition is a chapter that introduces principles that deal with bringing inventions to the marketplace. It analyzes labor, material, accounting, and forecasting; then the theme of estimating is developed, with a study of methods, operations, and products. A versatile and extremely usable book, it's the perfect resource for engineers, managers, and entrepreneurs.

Customer Reviews:

Could have been better.......2007-08-25

The author of the book goes over the top in derivation in his calculations. It's almost as if he's trying to show off instead of keeping the math simple and relevant. However, considering the other books for this topic, there are no better.

From Product Description to Cost: A Practical Approach: Volume 2: Building a Specific Model (Decision Engineering)

Average customer rating:

From Product Description to Cost: A Practical Approach: Volume 2: Building a Specific Model (Decision Engineering)
Pierre Marie Maurice Foussier
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1846280427

Book Description

Parametric cost estimating, when properly used, is a very powerful and cost effective technique. Unfortunately, this technique is often misunderstood and rejected by many potential users for whom it could be a beneficial tool. The development of an agreement on how to use it and how to recognise its limitations is a major benefit to the cost estimating community.

From Product Description to Cost: A Practical Approach:

• presents different ways of parametrically forecasting costs, and the advantages and disadvantages of these methods by using real examples from the mechanical, software and building industries;

• discusses most of the mathematical procedures which are useful for parametrically forecasting costs;

• introduces the judgement needed to audit the ways in which these forecasting techniques are used, firstly as a process, and secondly as a tool to generate estimates.

Volume 2: Building a Specific Model is divided into nine parts and focuses on the building of ‘specific’ cost estimating models. These models explicitly refer to a ‘product family’, and, as opposed to ‘general’ models, any company (if properly organised) can build these models. Understanding the procedures is key in creating successful specific models; for this reason all these procedures are fully described in this volume. Classical methods and new ones (such as the "bootstrap") are described and illustrated.

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Warranty Cost Analysis

Manufacturer: CRC
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Warranty Management and Product Manufacture (Springer Series in Reliability Engineering)

ASIN: 0824789113

Book Description

Considers cost and optimization problems from the manufacturer's and the buyer's points of view. The work discusses a variety of warranty policies and the mathematical models for the analysis of related engineering and management issues. All standard consumer product warranties are covered.

Life-Cycle Cost and Economic Analysis (Prentice Hall International Series in Industrial and Systems Engineering)

Average customer rating:

A MUST HAVE

Life-Cycle Cost and Economic Analysis (Prentice Hall International Series in Industrial and Systems Engineering)
Wolter J. Fabrycky , Benjamin S. Blachard , and Benjamin S. Blanchard
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0135383234

Customer Reviews:

A MUST HAVE.......2007-08-23

Fabrycky and Blanchard go deep into the subject allowing the reader to bluild its own model.

It could be complemented with some step by step on finance, mainly for the ones not familiar with discounted cash flow, money value over time, etc.

Also, the book deserves a more modern lay-out with the use of colours and a better content flow.

Overall a MUST HAVE on the field, with very rich content.

Average customer rating:

Not worth the money
This is a marvelous,well written,understandable book.
This is a marvelous,well written,understandable book.

Value Engineering: A Plan for Invention
Richard Park
Manufacturer: CRC
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 157444235X

Book Description

After more than 50 years as a manager and VE pioneer, Richard J. Park presents Value Engineering: A Plan for Invention. Park demonstrates how to adopt VE as a thinking process that can enable you to increase your problem solving skills, cultivate innovation, reduce costs, improve productivity, and more. Features

Customer Reviews:

Not worth the money.......2006-01-23

The information in this book can be readily found on the internet. As a consequence, do not buy it.

This is a marvelous,well written,understandable book........1999-04-10

This book is just what VE has needed. It brings Value Engineering (VE) into the modern world and shows VE to be a system esential to today's business and social environment.

The book is in four sections. The first,"The World Around Us" discusses a number of management systems, cites their strengths and when they should be used in a project development cycle to get the most benefit from each system. One of the systems discussed is VE and the difference between VE and all other management systems, both old and new, is clearly indicted.

The "Economics Of Profit" discusses in detail four essential elements, Cost, Function, Value and Quality and the need for an understanding of each and the relationship of each one to the other to achieve a successful profitable result from effort.

The third section"The Human Element", covers Communiction, Motivation, Teams and Teamwork and Creativity as essential elements for developing any project whether it is business or personal activities.

The fourth section alone is great. "The sum Of The Parts" puts all of the technical and psychological elements together in the VE system and illustrates the operation by means of a simple, actual example of a project from start to finish. the project is discussed in plain language that is readily understandable. In addition, there are eight varied examples of projects that show the potential scope for application of the system from products to business and government organizations to personal affairs. there is also an appendix with a myrid of useful information.

This is a marvelous,well written,understandable book........1999-04-10

This book is just what VE has needed. It brings Value Engineering (VE)into the modern world and shows VE to be a system esential to today's business and social environment.

The "Economics Of Profit" discusses in detail four essential elewments, Cost, Function, Value and Quality and the need for an understanding of each and the relationship of each one to the other to achieve a successful profitable result from effort.

The fourth section alone is great. "The sum Of The Parts" puts all of the technical and psychological elements together in the VE system and illustrates the operation by meaans of a simple, actual example of a project from start to finish. the project is discussed in plain language that is readily understandable. In addition, there are eight varied examples of projects that show the potential scope for application of the system from products to business and government organizations to personal affairs. there is also an appendix with a myrid of useful information.

Average customer rating:
Value Analysis Tear-Down: A New Process for Product Development and Innovation
Jerry Kaufman , and Yoshihiko Sato
Manufacturer: Industrial Press, Inc.
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Value Engineering: A Plan for Invention

The Toyota Product Development System: Integrating People, Process And Technology

Product Development for the Lean Enterprise: Why Toyota's System Is Four Times More Productive and How You Can Implement It

Value Engineering: Practical Applications...for Design, Construction, Maintenance & Operations

Target Costing and Value Engineering (Strategies in Confrontational Cost Management Series)

ASIN: 0831132035

Book Description

Book Description

This work examines the most important techniques for analyzing the profitability of capital investments. It discusses time value mechanics and financial concepts, including discounted cash flow, return on investment, incremental analysis, cash flow tables, income taxes, depreciation, cost of capital and risk analysis. It provides a broad introduction to project evaluation and data needs.;This book is intended for: cost, project, design, mechanical, chemical, industrial,electronic,electrical and construction engineers; project and budget managers; cost estimators and controllers; planners and schedulers; and upper-level undergraduate and graduate students in these disciplines.

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The Bible of Usability ROI
you need it
Resource for defining the costs of poorly designed systems.

Cost-Justifying Usability

Manufacturer: Morgan Kaufmann
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0120958104

Book Description

Today's increasingly competitive and fiscally constrained business environment is fostering the need to cut costs and justify expenditures. Usability engineering is not yet universally accepted, nor is it yet an integrated aspect of software engineering, and would-be usability champions need more help than ever to win the funding necessary to introduce and promote usability engineering techniques.
Cost-Justifying Usability is the first book to address pragmatically and in detail the question of how usability engineering professionals and their managers can cost-justify their proposals and efforts. The book offers specific techniques for quantifying costs and benefits, making a convincing and successful business case for investment in usability engineering.
This book comprises a thorough and well-integrated collection of chapters written by experienced and prominent usability experts. Taken together, these chapters provide readers with:
An overall framework for cost-justifying usability engineering programs that can be applied to any context
An examination of the unique factors and issues in cost-justifying usability efforts for three very different types of organizations: vendor companies, international development organizations, and contractor companies
Case studies of successful cost-justification efforts
A look at some special issues regarding cost-justification of usability, including"discount"usability engineering techniques, success factors for introducing usability engineering into development organizations, specialized tools for usability cost-justification, and a look to the future of usability engineering
Practical and effective insight for human factors professionals, interface designers, software development managers, and human factors educators

Customer Reviews:

The Bible of Usability ROI.......2003-01-09

Everyone involved in usability needs a highlighted, or bookmarked iwth post-it notes, copy of this book. Its always powerful to back up how important usability is to others who are unfamiliar with its power, be it your team or a client, and this book shows you how to do figure out the return of investment with dollars, something everyone understands. Overall, it gets the point across by showing readers how to do it for themselves with formulas that are not all that difficult at all, and where to pull numbers from to calculate the ROI.

you need it.......2001-11-26

Bite the bullet, buy the book. in these days of cut budgets, you must be able to justify your worth. There are formulas in this book that anyone designing software or digital products can use-- not just usability geeks. IA's, designers, GUI kids... time to learn the math.

Resource for defining the costs of poorly designed systems........1999-08-06

If you are looking for help with quantifying the cost of bad interface design and/or how poorly designed application costs the company money, then this is the book for you.

This book is practical and right on target for helping IT groups and customers understand the importance of systems that allow work to be completed efficiently. The authors do a great job quantifying the cost of poorly design, unusable system.

If you have ever tried to demonstrate to an IT group that it is more costly not to change the system, then this book will give you the strategy for showing how investing in system changes actually costs less in the short term, than in the long term.

End users will cheer anyone who applies the information in this book to the applications they use.

Average customer rating:

The origins, the methods and the uses of function modeling in systems design

FAST Creativity & Innovation

Development of FAST with project examples

Fast Creativity & Innovation: Rapidly Improving Processes, Product Development and Solving
Charles W. Bytheway
Manufacturer: J. Ross Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Fast Innovation: Achieving Superior Differentiation, Speed to Market, and Increased Profitability

The Art of Innovation: Lessons in Creativity from IDEO, America's Leading Design Firm

The Toyota Product Development System: Integrating People, Process And Technology

Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die

ASIN: 1932159665

Customer Reviews:

The origins, the methods and the uses of function modeling in systems design.......2007-02-23

Any deliberate kind of improvement or innovation involves design, the stock and trade of engineers and technologists. Yet engineers and technologists are trained as problem-solvers, specialists and experts, not as inventors or innovators; they are authoritative only about certain kinds of things and know little if anything about all kinds of things. In particular very few are trained in the design of all the sorts of things, or in other words, about systems in a general way. Yet, as experience has shown, creativity and innovation is enhanced as designs from one area are brought to bear on another. Engineers and technologists ought to be trained to design all sorts of things. Is that possible? Yes, if they learn "general design".

One of the few powerful and deep approaches to modeling and designing systems in general is function modeling. And function modeling, though still in its infancy (the approach still makes use of "intuitive logic", as if there were such a thing), has been systematized in the FAST method founded by Charles Bytheway, the author of this book.

Charles Bytheway is the quintessential inventor and innovator, the general or systems designer. This book provides a description of the origins of the FAST method and its general principles. It describes how it can be applied and what its strengths and advantages are. But more than anything, Mr. Bytheway is able, in this book, to capture the enthusiasm that accompanies the act of design and invention and the essence of doing rather than talking about innovation. This book ought to be particular interest to all systems designers, engineers, technologists as well as to managers who deal with issues of innovation.

FAST Creativity & Innovation.......2007-02-14

Charles Bytheway's book is a `must read' for anyone responsible for innovation. He explains a method that allows us to make the process of invention visible and auditable in a way teams can collaborate. As such, teams not only arrive at insights but can manage the process by which they arrive at them. Because of this they can set about improving the way they innovate and in a systematic fashion where errors can later be identified. That is, because of this book we can learn how to get better at innovating. This is achieved by making functionality explicit rather than leaving it assumed as is often the case. Charles has shared his approach in this book and we are now in a position to do what we previously struggled with. That is, manage the organisation's ability to systematically generate new ideas that afford competitive advantage.

I strongly recommend this book.

Dr Roy Woodhead
Technology Management
School of Technology
Oxford Brookes University
Oxford
England

Development of FAST with project examples.......2007-02-13

FAST Creativity and Innovation speaks to both the expert practioner and the novice. The book can be divided into two main segments. The first segment discusses how Charles Bytheway developed the methodology. The second covers four tangible project examples and one abstract example.

As a practioner of the FAST methodology, what I gained most from reading this book is an understanding of the way Mr. Bytheway thought as he developed FAST diagrams. His process is to switch roles constantly. In other words, think about the subject from several different perspectives. One example he gives to illustrate this concept is when he was teaching the how-why logic using the example "prevent highjacking". What he did throughout the discussion is he put himself in the shoes of the pilot, then the passenger and finally the airline president. This role playing gave him new insights that helped stimulate his creativity.

If you are an expert on FAST diagramming I would recommend this book to learn the development and genealogy of this important Value Engineering & Analysis tool. If you are a novice I would recommend this book because you will learn the FAST process from the creator of the methodology as well as some good examples of how to apply it.

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