Book Description
Praise for Crash Proof
"The dot-com implosion proves that we all need Peter Schiff's vision of investing.?His view is so global and so unique in its approach, and at a time when we all should be looking to crash-proof our portfolios, Schiff offers us this much-needed life-raft."
—Liz Claman, Cohost, CNBC Morning Call
"For those accustomed to America's economic dominance, Crash Proof is a frighteningly forthright wake-up call. But Peter Schiff is one Cassandra whose voice deserves your rapt attention. Devoid of the usual Wall Street spin, this frank and prophetic read will make you reconsider the very foundations on which your financial house is built."
—Jonathan Hoenig, Portfolio Manager, Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC and FOX News Channel analyst
"Schiff does an outstanding job of outlining the dangers to individual investors of the current economic environment and presents a plausible plan about how to deal with the risks."
—David W. Tice, Portfolio Manager, Prudent Bear Funds
"A sober assessment of the financial problems facing our country. Reading this book will prepare you for potential outcomes that Wall Street and the mainstream financial media are completely unaware of."
—Bill Fleckenstein, founder and President of Fleckenstein Capital and MSN.com Money columnist
Customer Reviews:
To Weather Economic Storms.......2007-10-06
I heard a radio interview with Peter Schiff and was very impressed with what he had to say, so much so that I purchased two copies of "Crash Proof", one for me and one for my son. I am advising my son to discuss Mr. Schiff's investment recommendations with his certified financial planner after he finishes the book.
this book is a buy........2007-10-06
I enjoyed the book. everyone who is worried about the economic trend in the US should read this book. I is a buy because it's a book that one can keep for future reference.
Crash Proof if you have the assets!.......2007-10-05
My wife and I read this and found it very helpful. It makes sense. However, our assets only amount to 40K. We are retired and all of our income is from SS and a pension in dollars. There is nothing we can do about this. We moved almost all of our assets out of dollars.
If and when the US economy collapses, we will be hurt badly even if our 40K remains solid.
Quarterlife Finance says, "Read it with a grain of salt.".......2007-10-03
Consider this scenario: The domestic manufacturing sector is all but gone. Housing prices crash and billions of dollars of unrealized equity evaporate almost overnight. Consumer spending drops and the US service economy, driven by consumer spending and propped up by foreign investment and trade deficits, crashes. Foreign investors see the weakness and stop buying dollar denominated assets, furthering the dollar's free-fall. Our interest rates shoot skyward, and at the same time we suffer hyperinflation. This catastrophic chain of events leads to a tremendous depression that leaves millions of Americans penniless and unemployed.
That is just one of the possible scenarios foreseen by Schiff and Downes in their 2007 book Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books). This book makes for an interesting read, though one to be taken with a grain of salt. The book combines dire doom-and-gloom predictions with a healthy dose of mistrust for the government. If the authors were not so absolutely correct about many of the points in the book, it wouldn't deserve a second look. The authors' predictions are proving valid with each day that goes by, though, so I think this book is worth reading.
The book spends the first seven chapters discussing why the US economy is about to collapse. The author delves into the shift from a manufacturing to a service economy and the possible consequences. He examines inflation and convincingly explains why he believes that the government manipulates inflation indicators to hide the truth. He predicts a sharp decline in the dollar for many reasons, including the possibility that the dollar may no longer be the world's reserve currency after a few years.
He goes on to consider the chaos that has affected the stock market in recent years, and how the tech bubble never really burst but rather shifted into housing. He predicts a decline in housing on par with or greater than the tech crash at the beginning of this decade. He predicts that the same dollars will go towards creating a commodity bubble and result in even greater inflation. Before giving us his answer to these problems, he caps his analysis with a coup de grace - the problem of debt in the US. The author is very concerned about the levels of consumer debt, lack of home equity, and US government debt that threaten to overwhelm both US citizens and the economy as a whole.
Finally, we are given the answer to this impending crisis in three simple steps: move most of your investment dollars into foreign dividend-paying stocks and gold, and hold a reserve of liquidity (preferably in foreign currency) to allow you to take advantage of investment opportunities as the domestic economy comes crashing down around you.
I liked this book for many reasons. For one, it presents a worst-case scenario that deserves serious consideration given the veracity of some of the authors' claims. Second, it presents interesting reading. I particularly enjoyed the authors' analogy of the current world economy to an island on which six Asians work around-the-clock to feed, clothe, and shelter the sole American - who benefits the Asians by giving them a reason to produce.
Most interestingly, the author hit the nail on the head with respect to both housing and the declining dollar. An investor in February, 2007 (when this book was published) would have done very well moving his portfolio to gold and foreign stocks.
However, there were some major problems with this book, in my opinion. First and foremost, the book ends with a shameless plug for the authors' investment company. If his ideas are that excellent, he should not need to plug his brokerage....clients will find him regardless. Also, he presents his company as the single outlet for implementing his plan. I would appreciate two or three unbiased options (low-cost foreign index funds, for example) - otherwise his entire book seems like a fear-based ploy to increase his own business with little regard for his clients.
The authors also make a strong case for dividends over capital appreciation. However, if you are a believer in efficient markets, singling out dividend-paying stocks will not result in a greater return than the market as a whole.
Lastly, a major premise of the book is that the lack of manufacturing in America will lead to a decline in the dollar, inflation, and recession. However, I think it is important to note that a declining dollar may serve to bolster our manufacturing sector by making our products more competitive both domestically and internationally. So the very problem the authors present could potentially solve itself.
Overall, the authors do an excellent job of considering the potential for a decline in the US economy, and present some interesting strategies to mitigate the effects of the crash. Even if you disagree with the authors, some of their strategies (including investment in foreign securities and gold) have a place in almost every portfolio.
Good to be aware of this, don't have to agree...........2007-10-03
I saw Peter Schiff on CNBC and was drawn to his style. I love the fact that he stands up to these idiot talking heads that think everything is "pretty good".. the economy is basically strong they will tell you. Well I tend to agree with Schiff's views. Worth the read.
Book Description
Swing trading is gaining popularity as a powerful method to increase returns—and potentially lower risks—by profiting from short-term price moves. The Master Swing Trader explains how traders can use technical analysis, charting, and market sentiment to make trades that hold through price fluctuations and noise with wider stops. This complete, practical guide to making profitable short-term trades—based on the author’s popular “Mastering the Trade” online course—uses dozens of charts and graphs to illustrate proven swing trading concepts and strategies. Experienced day, position, and online traders will benefit immediately from: - The 7 Bells – unique tools to uncover promising short-term prospects - Techniques to profit from low-risk short sales - The 4 repeating cycles for perfectly timed trades
Download Description
The Master Swing Trader explains how traders can use technical analysis, charting, and market sentiment to make trades that hold through price fluctuations and noise with wider stops.
Customer Reviews:
A good, if hard to read, trading book.......2007-07-28
I felt the need to post a review because it seems to me most reviewers think the only options for rating a product are 1 a 5. To preface: I'm a college student who has recently been looking into technical analysis. This book was recommended to me by a friend. I don't claim to be an expert in trading.
First of all, I have to agree, this book is incredibly hard to read. The author comes off as an over-verbose pretentious individual.
Difficulty aside, this book gives you an incredible wealth of information on trading. I couldn't disagree more with a past reviewer who claims that this book is marketed as a "Get rich quick". I feel this book is quite the opposite. It gives you a very practical overview of many of the popular indicators and TA techniques(as opposed to say, the introductory explanation as offered in Murphy's) as well as lots of general tips to aspiring swing traders. It then goes on to outline some very thoroughly defined trading systems and all the knowledge needed to execute them.
This book is long and to be honest, painfully boring sometimes. However if you are looking to increase your knowledge of trading, I feel this is a book that should definitely be considered. Look elsewhere if you want a quick weekend read.
No substance.......2007-04-18
There are some good principles in the book, but its way to easy to get lost in all of the repetition and blandness. The section on fibonocci retracements was useful and seems to work well for me in practice; however, I didn't get much else from the book.
One of the Best.......2006-11-12
I had read a lot of reviews over this book before deciding to purchase it. The reviews--more than any trading book out there, at the time--pretty much had the vote split between people who absolutely hated it and those who absolutely loved it. The deciding factor that lead to my purchase was the author (a professional trader of many years) of another book who spoke highly of "The Master Swing Trader"'s author, and the work he had done in writing this piece.
This is not a fluff book to hook you into trading. This book is geared towards those few individuals out there who wish to make trading a profession, rather than a passing fancy. I read a large number of those fluff books during my decision to become a professional day trader. I wish I had picked up this book first, because it goes into all the techniques I now use today in order to be successful. Not only does this book discuss the various trading techniques and their set-ups, along with all so important exit strategies, but more importantly it discusses why price moves in certain directions, why it jumps forth, why it breaks down--basically, it offers rare insights into the psyche of the trading crowd that is the market (all those traders out there who are competing against you).
The writing style has been berated as too 'text-book' in presentation, but I beg to differ. It flows with an elegant prose that distinguishes the author not only as a true trader, but also as a true writer who can hook those who wish to relate to the generously offered insights. Only those who have been through the grueling battles in actual trading scenarios and who hunger to know why things went right or why they went wrong, will appreciate this work and set it up on their bookshelf next to the other trading classics.
If you are used to simplistic writing such as can be found on any dimestore bookshelf, with the likes of Stephen King, this elevated work may certainly be beyond your grasp. If, however, you can digest proper grammer and get past poetic prose, this book will open a window rarely seen before. It is probably one of the best all around trading books ever written.
Good luck to those aspiring traders who hunger to understand market sentiment.
WOW...just wow.......2006-11-09
What a horrible book. The writing style of the author is horrendous! Impossible to follow or even comprehend what he is trying to teach. All the information in this book is readily available online. Save your money and buy "Mastering the trade" by Scott instead.
Solid Technical Trading Book.......2006-09-24
First, I agree that the author needs to learn how to write properly. Some of his thoughts are all over the place, and need some work. His editor must have been a complete moron. Nevertheless, after going through the material, I felt the book had some good trading ideas to offer, if your familiar with technical analysis. The seven bells are a useful place to start looking for trading setups, and are the most valuable part of this book. With that said, John Carter's Mastering The Trade is much, much better if you had to only buy one book. If the author edits his writing a little bit better, stops trying to be like Shakespeare (go write fiction if you want to do this big guy), his book would be much improved. It would also be useful to see some stats on how his 7 bells do in actual trading. He sometimes makes comments like an 65-80% of the time it will work... well I could tell you the Tooth Fairy is real, too, but show me some evidence!
Book Description
All companies must grow to survive-but only one in five growth strategies succeeds. In Profit from the Core, strategy expert Chris Zook revealed how to grow profitably by focusing on and achieving full potential in the core business. But what happens when your core business provides insufficient new growth, or even hits the wall?
In Beyond the Core, Zook outlines an expansion strategy based on putting together combinations of adjacency moves into areas away from, but related to, the core business, such as new product lines or new channels of distribution. These sequences of moves carry less risk than diversification, yet they can create enormous competitive advantage, because they stem directly from what the company already knows and does best.
Based on extensive research on the growth patterns of thousands of companies worldwide, including CEO interviews with twenty-five top performers in adjacency growth, Beyond the Core (1) identifies the adjacency pattern that most dramatically increases the odds of success: "relentless repeatability;" (2) offers a systematic approach for choosing among a range of possible adjacency moves; and 3) shows how to time adjacency moves during a variety of typical business situations.
Beyond the Core shows how to find and leverage the best avenues for growth-without damaging the heart of the firm.
Customer Reviews:
Practical and Insightful .......2005-03-28
What is especially useful about this book is that it is practical. It gives advice for every stage of an adjacency expansion, from strategy development to execution, on how to increase the likelihood that it will be successful. The case studies are interesting and the analysis is insightful.
For people like me who do not have a business background or management consulting experience, this book is an excellent read and, at the very least, should get you by at parties where you would run into such people.
An Outstanding Growth Guide for Global Business Leaders.......2004-05-13
As a second year MBA student at the Kellogg School of Management and a future corporate strategist for a global financial services firm, I found reading Beyond the Core to be one of the best time investments that I've made over the last few years. Chris Zook seems to have a knack for writing great books that not only stand the test of time but that are also highly relevant to the current business and economic environments. Specifically, his first book, Profits from the Core, which focused on maximizing the value of the core business, was launched when businesses needed it most - during the economic downturn. Now, Beyond the Core is perfectly timed since, from what I and other MBA's are observing in the market, most businesses are remobilizing for growth.
Overall, I greatly enjoyed Beyond the Core - it's a relatively quick read that is focused, insightful and well structured. More specifically, I think there are three key things that make this book stand out in comparison to many other business books I've read: 1) it takes a global perspective 2) it is highly data driven and has great examples and 3) its very actionable and offers lots of insights on implementation.
To elaborate, the first thing I really liked about Beyond the Core is that it takes a truly global perspective with examples from Europe, Asia and Latin America. As an MBA student majoring in International Business Strategy who will be working in a global firm after graduation, it was great to read about the strategies that firms such as Li & Fung (HK), Ambev (Brazil), Lloyd's Bank and Vodephone (UK) and STMicroelectronics (Italy). Overall, I also liked that the book mixes an array of fresh case studies (Tesco, Biogen, Ambev) with more traditional ones (Dell, Nike, American Express).
Secondly, Beyond the Core is highly data driven and the recommendations are based on empirical evidence, not conjectures. As a student of business strategy, I too often come across books or theories that are supported by nothing other than a few select examples that prop up the author's hypotheses. Beyond the Core, in contrast, is supported by an enormous amount of financial, competitive and market research and by many CEO interviews and studies by Bain & Company. This is extremely insightful as it helps the reader understand the odds of success and failure across the business world and thus leads to much more informed strategies.
Finally, Mr. Zook has focused nearly a third of the book on implementation and execution strategy. This makes the book and its recommendations highly actionable instead of leaving the author asking "so what?" The book sets out a systematic and understandable road map for adjacency expansion. More importantly, it discusses issues that are critical to growth initiatives such as: organizational structure, decision making processes, staffing, accountability and reporting, etc.
In sum, I highly recommend Beyond the Core, especially to global business leaders looking for a practical guide for profitably growing their businesses. Enjoy!!
Questionable Choice of Examples and Lack of Definitions!.......2004-03-15
Many people who have been burned by going into new areas will grade this as five-stars for encouraging caution in expanding a company's scope. If that's all you want from a book, this is a five-star book. If you want to learn what the exact lesson is, and why that lesson is true, you'll have to look elsewhere however. If you want to learn how to beat the odds in this area, you will also have to look elsewhere.
I found Profit from the Core to be a directionless mishmash of data without firm definitions that repeatedly espoused the idea of "stick to your knitting." As a result, I took up Beyond the Core with great trepidation. At first blush, Beyond the Core seemed to cure some of the peripheral problems of Profit from the Core . . . until I began to notice how almost all of the important examples of continuing business model innovation had been excluded that seemed to fit all of the criteria (except perhaps being willing to be interviewed by the author). Mr. Zook continues to avoid defining what "the core" is, so that basic problem continues.
The book's message is "stick to your knitting . . . unless you have not choice . . . then don't go away from your cost advantages and knowledge." If you want to know a little more about that message, you can read all of the key points in the book summarized in the Afterword on pages 189-192 in less than five minutes.
The book will mainly be helpful to those who are thinking about making unrelated acquisitions. The advice: Don't do it! The odds are way against you . . . but even the most unrelated acquisitions sometimes work (GE bought NBC and has done well with it, for example). The book lacks clear direction for how some overcome the odds.
The book was also curiously silent about how companies can use small experiments to test their way into new areas. That's the way that most firms expand beyond their core.
The methodology looks very much like those employed in Build to Last and Good to Great . . . but don't believe it. Cases were selected in part based on whether Mr. Zook could interview the companies. So it's really a subjective sample. So take the conclusions with a selective grain of salt. Here are some of the cases of those who have prospered with expanding into new areas that seem to fit the Zook criteria but don't appear in the book: Beckman Coulter; Berkshire Hathaway; Clear Channel Communications; Education Management; GE; Iron Mountain; Nucor; Paychex; Sony; Virgin Group; Xilinx; and Zebra Technologies. It's not surprising that the book fails to describe the discipline of continual business model improvement as a best practice . . . a serious omission for this subject.
Ultimately, I think the flaw behind the book is to look at moving "beyond the core" separately from looking "at the core." If the two books had been combined into one that looked at how to outperform the competition, there would have been the basis of helpful insights. Or, this book could have been scoped down into how to grow into new areas with internal development activities versus acquisitions. That would have been helpful. But with the focus of "beyond the core," you are left in a never-never land that you may not want to be in. The other interesting question that could have been addressed is how companies prospered by eliminating the old core and replacing it with a new one through acquisition as a number of companies have.
As I thought about why the author might have chosen this direction, I realized that it may be an unconscious use of the older ways of strategic thinking. Those analytical schemes separated thinking about existing business areas from entering new ones. For some time though, most strategic thinkers have emphasized seeing the questions as connected. You should, for example, be pursuing your best opportunities. That means comparing all choices in some manner at the same time.
The other problem with data-heavy studies like this one is that you are relying on backward impressions (with 20-20 hindsight). Studies of best practices are best done by looking at the decisions and actions when they are made . . . and then measuring the results to see what happens. Interviews taken at such times reveal much different information than the neat success stories spun after the fact. Clayton Christensen does a good job of explaining this issue in chapter one of his new book, The Innovator's Solution.
As I finished the book, I began to think about the many unsuccessful unrelated acquisitions that I have run into among companies. In almost every case, I remember reading a thick book by a name consulting firm that had explained at the time of the purchase why the acquisition could not miss. Perhaps a follow on for this book would be how to avoid bad advice in evaluating acquisitions.
Not All Adjacencies Are Appropriate.......2004-02-12
Perhaps you have already read Profit From the Core: Growth Strategy in the Age of Turbulence which Zook co-authored with James Allen. It was based on rigorous research which revealed the key strategic decisions that most often determine growth or stagnation in business. They note: "Central to our findings are three ideas: the concept of the core business and its boundaries; the idea that every business has a level of full-potential performance that usually exceeds what the company imagines; and the idea that performance-yield loss occurs at many levels, from strategy to leadership to organizational capabilities to execution." In the five chapters which follow, Zook (with Allen) examines "the types of strategic business decisions that most often seem to tilt the odds of future success or failure." Zook correctly suggests in this book that many organizations cannot resist the appeal ("the siren's song") of "miracle cures" of their problems. Zook focuses entirely on what has been verified in real-world experience, on what is practical, and on what will reliably achieve the desired results of sound strategic decisions.
In the first chapter of this book, Zook discusses what he calls "the growth crisis" which many (most?) organizations encounter. He observes, "Finding or maintaining a source of sustained and profitable growth has become the number one concern of most CEOs. And moves that push out the boundaries of their core business into 'adjacencies' are where they are most often look these days." I agree with Zook that these strategies have three distinctive features: "First, they are of significant size, or they can lead to a sequence of related adjacency moves that generate substantial growth. Second. they build on., indeed are bolted on, a strong core business. Thus the adjacent area draws from the strength of the core and at the same time may serve to reinforce or defend that core. Third, adjacency strategies are a journey into the unknown, a true extension of the core, a pushing out of the boundaries, a step-up in risk from typical forms of organic growth." Much of the material in this brilliant book is guided and informed by what Zook claims is "the new math of profitable growth." Specifics are best provided by Zook himself.
Zook presumes that those who read this book already know what a core business is, and more specifically, what the core business is of their respective organizations. Given his objectives, that assumption is probably necessary so that he can explore the opportunities which (key word) appropriate adjencies offer. Fair enough. However, my own experience suggests that companies frequently extend the boundaries of a core business without fully understanding what that core business is. Railroads probably offer the best example. Only much too late (if then) did senior-level executives at major railroads realize that their core business was transporting people and cargo, NOT "railroading." Obviously, trains are confined to the tracks as are ships to the water and trucks to the roadways over which they proceed. Early on, what if owners of railroads and their associates had addressed questions such as those Zook poses in his Preface (Page ix)? Had they done so, presumably they would have recognized appropriate adjacencies which include taxi cabs, Super Shuttle, local delivery services, and "overnight" delivery services (e.g. DHL, FedEx, and UPS). While they're at it, why not own or forge strategic partnerships with over-the-road trucking companies and cargo airlines? Given the central locations of railroad stations in major metropolitan areas, it would have been easy enough to combine a full-range of travel services within an upscale retail mall.
The question to ask, therefore, is not what an organization's core business is. Rather, what could AND SHOULD it be? The correct answer to that question is important, of course, because without a proper core, there can be chaos. Also, the correct answer suggests appropriate adjacencies by which to achieve and then sustain increasingly more profitable growth.
In the Afterword, Zook imagines himself engaged in what he calls the proverbial "elevator" conversation during which he reviews the "key messages" contained within his book. It serves no good purpose to list them here because each must be carefully considered within a meticulously formulated context. However, once the book has been read, I strongly recommend that all of these "key messages" be reviewed on a monthly (if not weekly) basis. For decision-makers in at least some companies, this may well prove to be the most valuable book they have read in recent years.
Standing Tall.......2004-01-31
Standing Tall among Business Books, Chris Zook has indepth research examples of Companies portraying picture of today's business times. Numerous CEO reports, charts and graphs with real practical illustrations are varied. Outside a core business, the expansion is detailed in this book - on how to go ahead framing and practically applying the ways and means so as not to harness the existence levels. The books offers nurturing roots of business, examples on adjacency expansions with pros and cons of success and failure measures. The name itself speaks big 'Expand market without abandoning Roots' and the rule of the game lies in effective management. The author pin points steps to leverage best avenues and the possible adjacent moves so as to reach competitive edge and pooling profit without harnessing the roots of main frame business. In today's time, with diversifications, 'Beyond the Core'- the book serves a Good Reference and as I read on Chris zook's comments, I feel this is a 'Grab Pick' and Must for all Big Company Executives.
Customer Reviews:
The best book I have ever read for predicting stock trends.......2005-11-04
Harry Dent really made a spectacular call back in 1993 in this book about the tremendous rise in the Dow during the 90's. He even predicted the slump in 2002-2003. His ideas of why this happened are presented in a simple theme that I found very intuitive. This book is a gem.
As for other books by Mr. Dent, he decided to contradict himself and go for very unrealistic goals for the Dow. Read this book and ONLY this book. Too late to make a killing on the stock market but still time to get out of stocks before the coming slump.
An Update.......2003-10-21
An update on this 1992 book "The Great Boom Ahead" from the perspective of 2003. First, Harry Dent is the eternal optimist and this earlier book correctly predicted the bull market of the 90s, while Robert Prechter, Martin Weiss, Nick Guarino, etc. were all wrong (in their timing at least) in predicting a downturn and depression to occur. But wait....the 2000-2002 downturn that cost so many investors money has at least opened a few eyes. And on pages 16, 18 and 34-36 of this book Harry Dent himself predicts the "Mother of all Depressions" to arrive around 2010, when the baby boomers' spending spree is over and they begin to retire. So the eternal optimist Harry Dent AGREES with the eternal pessimists and "doom-n-gloomers" about the inevitable outcome. They just disagree on the timing. So somewhere between 2004 - 2010 we can expect the largest downturn in U.S. history since 1929-1932. Enjoy the rest of the boom !!
A Real Eye Opener.......2002-01-05
Well supported by fact and Examples. Just wish I had read it years earler as I could have saved many $. I just couldn't put it down. Now I wouldn't be without it.
Highly Recommended!.......2001-10-03
Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s book is remarkable both for the overall accuracy of its predictions and for the simplistic model upon which those predictions depend. Written in 1993, it claims a niche within the general family of "trend" books written by the likes of Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt. The work anticipated our current era of super bullish markets, which it predicts will continue through 2007. The crystal ball drops a few items, given that a few years have passed since publication. Nonetheless, it offers a clear macroeconomic forecast and investment tool. If you sense the Fed just doesn't get the New Economy, this is the book for you. We [...] recommend this book to those seeking to understand the United States' era of record-breaking economic gains (and Japan's current hard times).
Where's Gen X or Silent Generation???.......2001-04-22
It was interesting book and having read it in 2001, I can see that many of his simple forecasts in the 90's are often on the mark. However there are many flaws that reflects his boomer navel-gazing. Why, I wonder, did Dent never chart the population surges of Silent Generation or Generation X? Moreover, where did all the immigrants disappeared to? Did they fell into the black hole after entering America? What about the inner-city blacks with unusally high crime-imprisoned rate? What about the endless resources from nanotech, biotech, and outer space? What about the cracking of welfare states now that communism is no longer a threat? I am sure that if Dent have charted all these information, the picture will look striking different.For example, many boomers prided themselves on being "largest generation". Based on simple birth rate, this is correct, but the picture is incomplete. The busters or Gen X may have smaller birth rate, but far higher immigrantion since the 60's, particulary after Vietnam War when many young people and children escaped dictatorships from Asia and Eastern Europe. Taken together, the Gen X is actually a far larger generation in simple numbers than so-called Boomers. At same time, it also have smaller capital to start business with and must struggle with crack-up of welfare state at same time. Yet, the Xers are more likely and more willing to start businesses and freelance than Boomers who must deal with downsizing from comfortable white and blue collar jobs that they were trained for all their lives.
So as far as I am concerned, there may be a big recession as the boomers retired (certainly, there will certainly be a death of welfare state by that time, and with it, the politics as the driving force of economy) but there will not be a great depression like or greater than that of the 1930's.
Customer Reviews:
Amazingly In-Depth Beginners Book.......2007-07-27
This book is better than most beginners Technical Analysis books, and it focuses on alot more. She gives a basic strategy which can be used. This is a must buy, look at the price you got nothing to lose.
interesting but slightly annoying.......2006-12-23
Good info for beginners, something to learn for most inexperienced traders. I read everything I can on trading, there's always something to learn. This book is a bit simplistic, a bit repetitive, and most of all, has weird unnecessary self-help positve thinking crap throughout. Plus the annoying 'yikes' 'eek' etc commentaries on the charts. If you can get past her style, there's some educational stuff here. Her chapter on candlestick charting is best left unread- buy Nisson's books instead and get the whole picture correctly. I think she makes her money writing, not trading- as they say, them that can't do- teach.
A Beginner's Guide to Short-Term Trading: How to Maximize Profits in 3 Days to 3 Weeks.......2006-08-25
The content of the book is plane and simple to understand. Great information with examples ease to understand even for someone like me how has no knowledg of the stock market. I totaly recomend the book. The author is also very talented, suttel and incorporates good humor. I have learned something!
Good introduction - with some reservations..........2006-06-16
This book is a good introduction for beginners, but I have several reservations:
1, "Fundamental analysis: quick yet thorough sources" promptly refers the reader to a charge-for-service website, like William O'Neil's Investor's Business Daily for a quick checkup. Now, I understand that a trader knows "the price of everything and the value of nothing", but one would think that a balance sheet or a statement of operations may still be an important consideration instead of just blindly relying on a proprietary software screen. (For example: interest rates currently soaring, companies with large amount of cash are clearly more valuable than the ones stuck in debt. The site mentioned above only considers four factors in the fundamental score, debt is not included.)
2, Every chapter ends up with a question and answer section that is quite annoying, but not as annoying as the "look at your navel"-type self-help-ish page. I firmly believe, after learning about the Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracements one would not collapse into an existential crisis needing the author's assurance "You are perfect now!" Why is it trying to be a self-help book, too?
3, Volume indicators (i.e.pg 145) are sometimes not easily recognizable as proportionately significant changes, RSI changes appear biased by retrospection, the OBV is incorporated into the volume markers that is confusing as other charts use the average volume curve in the same location.
Altogether, one has to respect the author's approach that appears genuinely dedicated to introduce us to short term trading, but...please take us, readers, a little bit more seriously...
Buy her other book, it's better..........2006-03-27
She is an excellent author, that's for sure. I have read this one and also her day trading book. The day trading book is better by a mile, even for those wanting a book on swing-trading or position trading.
Essentially what this book amounts to is the swing-trading chapter in her daytrading book expanded with a whole lot of padding. It doesn't really offer any additional insights in my opinion. I can understand the reason for this book from a marketing perspective, but you are much better off reading her day trading book regardless of your trading time-frame.
[...]
Book Description
For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Dent, Jr., has been uncannily accurate in predicting the financial future. In his three previous works, Dent predicted the financial recession of the early nineties, the economic expansion of the mid-nineties, and the financial free-for-all of 1998-2000.
The Next Great Bubble Boom -- part crystal ball, part financial planner -- offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of the crash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.
Dent gives us all something to look forward to, including:
- The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade
- The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009
- Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006
- The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010
Dent's amazing ability to track and forecast our financial future is renowned, and here he takes that ability to the next level, showing not only what our economy will look like but also how it will affect us as individuals, as organizations, and as a culture. From the upcoming wealth revolution to the essential principles of entrepreneurial success, the book describes a new society where economic and philanthropic development go hand in hand.
In The Next Great Bubble Boom, Dent shows not only how the economic growth of the late 1990s was a prelude to the true great boom right around the corner but how all of us can reap its benefits.
Customer Reviews:
Next Great Bubble Boom, Revised Again.......2007-09-03
Hindsight tells us a lot of things. For the Next Great Bubble Boom, hindsight shows that Harry Dent's analysis of a 40,000 Dow and 20,000 Nasdaq are just as fanciful now as they were when he made the predictions in 2004. His latest revisions, which came out last year, show he has cut his original estimate in half, and that the predicted outcomes are much more within reason. The difficulty with accepting his predictions now is that the past ones ended so dismally. The seductive part of Dent's analysis is that it squares with historical and demographical cycles. The ridiculous part is the extrapolation into predictive behavior. It you want some really wild stuff, just look at what he says will happen from 2023 on. If anybody made any investment decisions based on this book, they're about due for a thorough reality check. His most powerful cycle, the 10-year cycle, seems the most likely one to come true. But the difficulty with predicting what will happen in each 10 year cycle is that Dent bases it strictly on stock market past behavior. And whenever that prediction fails, Dent finds some new cycle to explain his error. His latest cycle, the geopolitical cycle, supposedly explains the failure of the markets to rise in 2004-2005. What he failed to recognize early on was the impact of commodities, hedge funds, and Fed interest rate policy. Whenever the Fed raises rates, the stock market goes numb, because large institutional investors stay away. This time around, those investors put their billions into hedge funds, to get the promise of 40%+ returns. That alone explains the 2004-2005 doldrums. Add the spectacular housing boom/bust and you see why Dent's predictions went south. Now that the Fed has stopped raising rates and is apparently going to drop them, some of what Dent predicted still could come time. But notice that the title for the short book now says 2006-2010 rather than 2005-2010. The revisions just keep coming. I can't wait for the next one.
Is Dent Such A Big Liar or Just that Stupid?.......2007-06-26
I really do not know what to think. So many people write books based on a positive premise rather than reality because they know positivity sells. There's nothing wrong with positivity, but it should be reserved for motivational speakers not investments and economics. We are talking about people's retirement funds here!
Dent does not say much of anything new that he hasn't already said in his previous books. He is just trying to cash in on a rebound from the Internet bubble collapse. What kind of value is there in predicting a stretch of 4 years of great market returns? Regardless, we have yet to see this spectacular market performance. I'll tell you why he did this. Anyone with common sense knows that extremes in the market are followed by compensatory reversals which may or may not last. What this means is that Dent (like many others) expected a rebound from the lows in the market merely due to normal stock market behavior. The fact that he has restricted it to 2010 tells you where he thinks the market is really headed--down.
NEVER BUY A BOOK BY ANYONE WHO HAS A VESTED INTEREST IN a BULLISH STOCK MARKET (THOSE WHO WORK FOR MUTUAL FUNDS AND WALL STREET). ALSO NEVER BUY A BOOK BY ANYONE WORKING FOR A HEDGE FUND UNLESS YOU WANT TO HEAR THAT THE MARKET WILL GO DOWN. THESE GUYS ARE ALREADY TAKINGYOUR MONEY IN TEH MARKET AND NOW THEY WANNA TAKE YOUR MONEY BY SELLING YOU BOOKS FILLED WITH DREAMS THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.
Don't waste your money on this book. Instead get some books that talk about how bad the economy really is and how it is going to get worse for many years.
interesting read.......2007-04-11
interesting read. I am still waiting for his predictions to come true...
Dent in my wallet.......2007-04-07
If only I could express how much time and optimism I wasted after reading this book...
The fact is that the forecasts are wildly out of sync with reality, Dent's methods are proving to be nearly useless and market risks are actually on the INCREASE as I write this review.
Dent did not predict the real estate boom, he did not predict the commodity boom, he did not predict the 2000 bear market, he did not predict the dollar loss against the Euro... the list goes on. When he gets a prediction wrong, he just adds another "cycle" to his forecasts... the stock market turned to goo after 2000? "oh, well we discovered the 10 year stock cycle, and this PROVES that stocks should have gone down"... the Dow didn't go to 14,000 (as predicted in this book)? "Oh, we forgot about the commodity super-cycle". How many other 'cycles' does Dent not know about?
After reading this book a couple years ago, I'm sad to say I subscribed to his newsletter at around $400-500 /year, and while their knowledge of economic fundamentals was clearly solid, I can't say I made any money from his insights, or that his insights were any better than what I'd read on the Internet for free.
I'd recommend you take this book (along with everything else) with a grain of salt, and learn from a lesson that sinks in only after you've blown money... no one knows the future, especially Dent.
Wealth takes research.......2007-03-09
Harry Dent has another winner. Being the third in a series of books by Harry Dent, "The Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010," tells us again how to save what wealth we have and increase it during the current economic and investment boom. Anyone with money to invest must read this book.
Book Description
The #1 New York Times bestselling authors of the Rich Dad Poor Dad series deliver a financial plan to help Baby Boomers survive an impending economic crash. Anyone with a 401K knows that investing in mutual funds is not safe, or so claim Kiyosaki and Lechter. Even worse, they warn that a devastating economic crash is imminent because Baby Boomers will soon be required by law to drain trillions of dollars stashed in 401Ks, IRAs, SEPs, and other mutual-fund savings accounts as they start to retire. In short, the country's financial system won't withstand the drain, and relying on a 401K and Social Security will mean financial disaster. Here, Kiyosaki and Lechter provide a financial roadmap for readers to prosper during these troubled times.
Download Description
This is a "Gloom and Boom" book.First the bad news: Between the years of 2007 and 2012-just a few years from now-the vast majority of Baby Boomers will be on the verge of retirement-and they'll be looking to cash in on their hefty retirement plans. Quite frankly, the country is not prepared to handle this major drain of cash reserves, and there's every chance that peoples' lifelong savings will dramatically lose their value.And now, the good news:Sensing this financial crisis in the offing, Kiyosaki and Lechter provide a detailed financial plan to help forward-thinking people prepare for the worst-and they urge that one's planning start NOW. They go over a variety of alternative ways of generating wealth through other forms of investments, including real estate development, self-employment, and investing in other companies. Warns Kiyosaki: "I think we've all learned from this past year that mutual funds are NOT the answer to accumulating long-term wealth."
Customer Reviews:
Move along..........2007-03-17
There is nothing to see (read) here. You know now what you will get from this book. Spend your money elsewhere on Amazon.
Important Concept with a Road Long Taken!.......2007-02-01
I must admit -- I can almost ghost write for Kiyosaki at this point. Rich Dad's 'Prophecy' is an example of what I could have done if given the concept to write about.
Within 'Prophecy,' Kiyosaki this time offers us his view on an impending stock market crash that will be caused by Baby Boomers in layman terms "cashing out" between the years 2010 to 2020. It's an important topic and something that most of us know by now -- not a secret as they say nor earth shattering information. But -- his information is very important to think about as we go about the course of our lives in securing a financial future for ourselves.
Highlighs:
As a result of ERISA (Employment Retirement Income Security Act) we are now away from the days of Defined Benefit plans and are now well-entrenched into Defined Contribution plans - gold watch -- may'be; predictable retirement income -- no! As a result, the working American (in most cases according to Kioyaski) will put her money in safe mutual fund investments on the premise that the stock market over time always goes up (with peaks and valleys along the way) hoping that the mutual fund manager's dollar cost averaging concept is at her advantage.
I think we know where this is going (especially if you've read Kiyosaki's previous work). You have to take control in an active sense and become an educated investor. There are some pages within that one should review:
Page 61: Points out just who is your financial planner - what qualifies him or her? Find out. Also -- the premise (my take on it): Government intervention has pushed retirement funding on the shoulders of a future generation with laws in place that are counter-intuitive to sound financial planning.
Page 116: Regardless if you think the health care crises is overblown or not, this page brings it home. Health care costs are rising. Many will be without insurance. Medicare and social security bankrupt -- probably. But we're living longer without adequate protection to carry us in our golden years.
Chapter 9: The whole chapter -- nice summurization of some contributing factors that will bring about 'The Perfect Storm'. Japan's status as a major economic force; China becoming the powerhouse economy; Wall Street being obsolete, and other factors that are important -- this chapter combined with Chapters 4 and 5 and you have the main point of the book.
All this leads us into --- Kiyosaki's familar concepts: Invest in real estate (passive), become an active investor in the stock market (portfolio), and start or grow a business. There are some pointers within for those that desire to remain employed, but again, the remainder of the book is not "must read" material if you've read RDPD, CFQ, Guide to Investing, and RY-RR!
My 3-star review is based upon an important concept being introduced in a very enjoyable (though long-winded) format. In addition, Kiyosaki consistently allows the reader to join at any point and catch-up on his concepts. This was at one-tiime considered by Kiyosaki himself as his most important work. I disagree with that based on where I am in his series; however, it is an extremely important concept to be reviewed and put at the forefront of our minds. Most of you will probably be able to read this within 1 - 3 days and this would have been better placed in a newsletter to die-hards -- but he has built the brand, so if you want to roll with it -- roll with it! Just a sidebar: What kind of cap rate is he going for?! I must disagree with his Triple Net Lease and some of his commercial real estate information, but at least it's well-written for those familiar with real estate to critique.
Stop your whining, it's only a book........2006-07-19
I can't stand all of these reviewers expecting books to solve their financial problems. Look if you're looking at this book thinking, "Wow, if I read this, I'll be rich and not have any problems in life ever." Then DO NOT BUY IT. But if you're looking for other views on life instead of the one you're looking through, then get this book. It offers a couple lessons, and yeah, it's similar to the other books. But the reason I read those is because I need different outlooks on the same subject, "Getting out of the rat race."
In this book, he points out the downfalls of our U.S. financial policies and that we try to push out our financial problems as far into the future as possible. "Let our children handle it". Could Kiyosaki have said it in fewer words? Probably. But I enjoy reading his work, so I didn't mind so much. It seems to me the people that are so anxious for an answer on how to get rich are the same ones that are saying, "Well, he's not saying when this will happen." or "Well, he's only saying to get passive income so I can be financially free." If he were to say those things, why is it so bad? Being financially free is key no matter how the markets are doing.
A different perspective on how you look at the same thing, that's all he's offering. He's not offering world renowned remedies, he's not the solve it all, nor does he make himself out to be. There just seems like there are a whole bunch of poor dads out there looking for the solve all book, and complaining that they don't own the right book. I feel it was worth my time to read it. And not really worth my time to read these other reviews.
The same point reiterated over and over........2006-07-07
A much better and concise book on this topic is called "The Great Bust Ahead". Authored by Daniel Arnold, it provides much more statistical data for an up-coming crash / depression.
It's not the 70.5 year olds withdrawing from their 401k's which will cause a crash, it's the 49-54 year old spending age bracket which are heading into retirement.
Arnold is predicting a much earlier crash to occur around 2010. I highly recommend his book. It's a short read and will only take about an hour; but is well worth it.
Point Made in Many Words.......2006-05-08
Kiyosaki's main point is that the stock market will react to the required-by-law RMDs (required minimum distributions) when the first year of Baby Boomers turn 70 years old in 2016. Many Boomers will have to sell part of their retirement investments according to the U.S. law. As more Boomers reach age 70, more will be forced to sell part of their holdings each year...and keep selling until they die. In any market, when sellers abound, prices fall. This will, in Kiyosaki's prediction, affect the investments and retirement accounts of the rest of us post-Baby Boomers before we reach retirement. His advice: we have until 2012 to "build our financial arks" and get out of the stock market. His suggestion is to get into real estate and business building (same theme as his previous 3 books in the Rich Dad series).
He could have made this point in a few chapters. He tends to repeat his points, perhaps so we remember them. More theoretical than practical advice is given.
To be a wise investor, you must know the laws of the land...and use them to your advantage. Do not count on the government (Social Security or Medicare) for your retirement because government has a track record and continuing mentality of pushing financial problems forward to future generations.
Book Description
Everyone from journalists to market pros are turning to behavioral finance to explain, analyze, and predict market direction. In contrast to old-school assumptions of cool-headed rationality, the new behavioral school embraces hot-blooded human irrationality as a core feature of both individuals and financial markets. The 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to scholars of this new scientific approach to irrationality. In Mean Markets and Lizard Brains, Terry Burnham, an economist who has a proven ability to translate complex topics into everyday language, reveals the biological causes of irrationality. The human brain contains ancient structures that exert powerful and often unconscious influences on behavior. This "lizard brain" may have helped our ancestors eat and reproduce, but it wreaks havoc with our finances. Going far beyond cataloguing our financial foibles, Dr. Burnham applies this novel approach to all of today's most important financial topics: the stock market, the economy, real estate, bonds, mortgages, inflation, and savings. This broad and scholarly investigation provides an in-depth look at why manias, panics, and crashes happen, and why people are built to want to buy at irrationally high prices and sell at irrationally low prices. Most importantly, by incorporating the new science of irrationality, readers can position themselves to profit from financial markets that often seem downright mean. Mean Markets and Lizard Brains skillfully identifies the craziness that is part of human nature, helps us see it in ourselves, and then shows us how to profit from a world that doesn't always make sense.
TERRY BURNHAM is a leader in the application of biology to economics and finance. He was an economics professor at Harvard for many years, beginning at the Kennedy School and, most recently, at the Harvard Business School. His biological research has taken him to Africa to observe wild chimpanzees and to the laboratory to study the role of testosterone in negotiation. He is coauthor of the international bestseller Mean Genes. Before joining the Harvard faculty, he worked at Goldman Sachs & Co. and was the president and CFO of the successful start-up biotechnology firm, Progenics Pharmaceuticals, whose work in AIDS and cancer treatment has been widely praised. Dr. Burnham has a PhD in business economics from Harvard University, a master's in finance from MIT, an MS in computer science from San Diego State University, and a BS in biophysics from the University of Michigan. He served with distinction as a tank driver in the U.S. Marine Corps. .
Download Description
Everyone from journalists to market pros are turning to behavioral finance to explain, analyze, and predict market direction. In contrast to old-school assumptions of cool-headed rationality, the new behavioral school embraces hot-blooded human irrationality as a core feature of both individuals and financial markets. The 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to scholars of this new scientific approach to irrationality. In Mean Markets and Lizard Brains, Terry Burnham, an economist who has a proven ability to translate complex topics into everyday language, reveals the biological causes of irrationality. The human brain contains ancient structures that exert powerful and often unconscious influences on behavior. This "lizard brain" may have helped our ancestors eat and reproduce, but it wreaks havoc with our finances. Going far beyond cataloguing our financial foibles, Dr. Burnham applies this novel approach to all of today's most important financial topics: the stock market, the economy, real estate, bonds, mortgages, inflation, and savings. This broad and scholarly investigation provides an in-depth look at why manias, panics, and crashes happen, and why people are built to want to buy at irrationally high prices and sell at irrationally low prices. Most importantly, by incorporating the new science of irrationality, readers can position themselves to profit from financial markets that often seem downright mean. Mean Markets and Lizard Brains skillfully identifies the craziness that is part of human nature, helps us see it in ourselves, and then shows us how to profit from a world that doesn't always make sense.
TERRY BURNHAM is a leader in the application of biology to economics and finance. He was an economics professor at Harvard for many years, beginning at the Kennedy School and, most recently, at the Harvard Business School. His biological research has taken him to Africa to observe wild chimpanzees and to the laboratory to study the role of testosterone in negotiation. He is coauthor of the international bestseller Mean Genes. Before joining the Harvard faculty, he worked at Goldman Sachs & Co. and was the president and CFO of the successful start-up biotechnology firm, Progenics Pharmaceuticals, whose work in AIDS and cancer treatment has been widely praised. Dr. Burnham has a PhD in business economics from Harvard University, a master's in finance from MIT, an MS in computer science from San Diego State University, and a BS in biophysics from the University of Michigan. He served with distinction as a tank driver in the U.S. Marine Corps. .
Customer Reviews:
How people have built in problems with thinking rationally and how to exploit irrationality in markets.......2007-05-01
What a cool book! Terry Burnham wants to help his readers understand that while we fancy ourselves users of reason and rational beings we still have blind spots in our thinking and behavior that can get us into a great deal of trouble when making investment decisions. That is, unless we are explicitly aware of these problems and consciously work to train ourselves to avoid them and be continuously on guard against falling into their pit.
Burnham organizes the book into four parts. The first chapter is the introduction and presents the gist of the book. What is a mean market? The fact that markets can defy the accepted bromides about rational markets and wipe out investors surprisingly quickly and without any hint of mercy. The idea of cosmological indifference comes to mind. The author's vivid image of the "Lizard Brain" refers less to any explicit structure in the brain or any claim to specific evolutionary path to brain development.
Instead, Burnham is referring to the fact that we all have a set of tendencies, hard wired ways of perceiving the world, and bred in behavioral tendencies that worked well in keeping our ancestors alive in the ancient world. However, they are as out of place in our technological world as a lizard might be at the Met. For example, our brains are very good in seeing patterns. The problem is we often see patterns where none exist. On the other hand, we are terrible at perceiving frequencies. However, with training and discipline we can learn to deal with both of these natural tendencies. Without being aware of these potential problems, we too often get ourselves in trouble.
The first part weighs the traditional Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) of rational markets against the oceans of evidence that people do behave irrationally. Here is where I differ slightly with Burnham. My understanding of EMH does not require that each individual act rationally or that any given price at any instant in time be the "right" price. Instead, it indicates that in the aggregate that most irrationality cancels each other out and resources get allocated surprisingly efficiently. As for prices, the notion is not that the price is free from being too high or too low, but that there is a "right" price at all that will be in the area of most of the trading with some of it too high and some too low.
However, the EMH doesn't help the investor account for irrationality or how to avoid its dangers in one's own behavior or capitalize on its existence in others. And this is where the book's strengths are to be found.
The second part takes us through a survey of evidence of irrationality in the American markets and the limits of growth that are so often ignored in pricing equities. The author also takes us through the uses and perceptions of money, barter, inflation, and deflation. All interesting and useful information.
In part three we get Burnham's actual views on how to pull all this together in viewing Bonds, Stocks, and Real Estate for investments at the time of this book (2005). Burnham is an economist and discounts the optimism of many people who tout these products. I think he makes a great deal of sense. However, it is up to you to make your own decisions.
Part four provides two chapters full of principles for us to apply in making our own investment decisions. The first chapter gives "timeless advice". That is, those principles that are applicable in any type of market at any time. The second chapter offers "timely advice". That is, advice that is market condition specific. Burnham gives us principles to apply in rising or declining markets and how to know when to use them.
The issue is whether we have the discipline to apply them or will we surrender to the emotional pull of the lizard brain and find ourselves in trouble.
Burnham makes this subject quite lively, is able to put some nice color to it with some good anecdotes, illustrative stories, and some actually funny jokes.
Recommended.
Not a Comprehensive Look at the Topic.......2007-03-21
I purchased this book with the assumption that it would be a more in-depth treatise on investor psychology/behavioral economics. There was some of this sprinkled throughout the book, but overall it was not comprehensive. This does not, per se, make it a bad read. In fact, it was an easy read despite the annoying movie references throughout the book. But if you are looking for a more thorough look at this topic, your best bet is to look at the offerings of other authors.
Very good read, more intellectual rigor perhaps.......2006-10-04
I thoroughly enjoyed the book. Almost 2 years before the fact, it was pretty predictive of what might happen to the housing bubble. Actually I am thinking about making career moves in the direction of Behavioral Finance/Economics so was happy to see a 'popular" book in this area. But this is also the problem, I am looking for more scholarly accounts too!
Almost 5 stars; and a very enjoyable read........2006-05-01
A great read; appeals to the counter-intuitive insights of successful investors and explains a lot of human nature and how destructive it can be from an investment standpoint.
I found his advice at the end however strange and incorrect. He argues against adding to a position when it goes down in price. I have added to positions and this I have found to be very effective. For similar reasons, he argues against dollar cost averaging, which I have also found to be profitable. The reasons both of these strategies can be useful are that they are counter intuitive, so his opposition to these strategies seems out of place with the rest of the book. Also, in both these instances, I find his justification not to be persuasive.
The author is clearly a smart guy who writes well. I would have given the book 5 stars if it were not for those 2 issues. I purchased the book on Amazon.com and would recommend that every investor read this book.
Insightful and Fun!.......2006-04-17
I found my time well spent reading this book. For would be readers - it seemed to me that there really were two parts to this book:
1. An investigation of irrational economic decisions by investors with roots in our evolutionary history.
2. A reasoned (but somewhat superficial) analysis of current macroeconomic situation (US debt, current account deficit, stock valuations).
And there are numerous references to modern studies that help debunk some of the myths of investing and finance. I particularly enjoyed learning about 'survivorship-bias'. And finally, loved the sense of humor! Memorable quotes from popular works of arts kept me laughing and makes this a page-turner from the start.
On the downside, by the time I got to the end, I was more than a little tiresome of the repeated references to 'lizard-brain'. That point is made pretty well early on. And while Terry makes a convincing case that the bull market run in U.S. Real Estate, Bonds and Stocks is short on breath - this does not (IMHO) come close to justifying his 10% stock allocation advice. In this respect - not incorporating international stocks into a recommended financial strategy seems particularly glaring. Like never before, investors today have the ability to invest in overseas markets. By Terry's own theories, Japan (and perhaps emerging markets) would seem to be primed for a long bull market (coming off a long period of low growth and adverse investor sentiment). Keeping savings in declining US dollars while overseas currencies and markets appreciate seems ostrich like (if not lizard brained). Material, perhaps, for a second edition ?
Book Description
The first definitive guide to understanding and profiting from the relationship between the stock market and interest rates
It's well established that interest rates significantly impact the stock market. This is the first book that definitively explores the interest rate/stock market relationship and describes a specific system for profiting from the relationship. Timing the Market provides an historically proven system, rooted in fundamental economics, that allows investors and traders to forecast the stock market using data from the interest rate markets-together with supporting market sentiment and cultural indicators-to pinpoint and profit from major turns in the stock market.
Deborah Weir (Greenwich, CT) is President of Wealth Strategies, a firm that does marketing for traditional money managers and hedge funds. She is a Chartered Financial Analyst and is the first woman president of the Stamford CFA Society.
Customer Reviews:
POS! Danger -- Don't make the same mistake I made!!.......2007-08-03
I bought this book awhile ago. Studied it. It all sounded so good. And then I tried to recreate the buy/sell signal data.... If you already own the book and are using it to make investment decisions, be sure to try this exercise and answer the question at the end.
Go to Appendix 2.1 on page 333. Let's dig into the sell signal on "2000-08-01" as an example. First of all, as Weir explains in her book on page 15-16, the Treasury data is a monthly average. The Three-Month Bill entry is 6.09. That is an average of the 3-month yields from 8/1/2000 to 8/31/2000 (using the daily rates from H.15 3-month Treasury Bill secondary market rate data). Since that is an average, it is known on 8/31/2000 at the earliest. The same is true for the Ten-Year note and therefore the yield spread. Other than the misleading date name in the table (2000-08-01), so far so good.
Now we have a signal to Sell on 8/31/2000, right? The S&P 500 Index for 8/31/2000 is 1517.68. (Yahoo's daily historical Prices for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)). The "2000-08-01" entry in the book shows 1430 which is what the S&P 500 Index was for 7/31/2000, a month earlier. The same is true for all the entries in appendix 2.1.
So the question is: how is it that you can buy and sell an index based on signals you won't know until a month later?
What a scam!!
Great Investment Informtion On Interet Rate Cycles.......2007-06-26
I'm on my second reading and taking notes. This is the book you want if your interested in which market to be invested in and when. Inside information about the way fund managers think and act. Knowing when to be in stocks, bonds or gold is the most important information one can have when putting your money on the line....Deborah Weir's book,Timing the Market: How To Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators, does just that. My advice after being in the financial markets for over 45 years is...don't invest without this knowledge.
An overall disappointing effort.......2006-12-29
I approached this book with an inclination to like it. I'm a firm believer in market timing, and I jumped at the chance to learn some new ideas about using the fixed-income markets to time the stock market. I have to say, though, that I came away from Timing the Market frustrated and disappointed. Here's why.
Throughout the book, there is a chart detailing various buys and sells that one supposedly could have made using the author's timing system. However, rather than deriving these buy and sell points systematically, the author seems to arbitrarily choose buy and sell points that would have worked best in retrospect--regardless of whether they fit into a coherent, replicable system or not.
For example, in chapter 7 the author adds buy points to her chart right after the waterfall declines in October 1987, September 1998 and September 2001. What is the rule that guides these choices? Apparently, it is that the Fed lowered the fed funds rate at least one-half of one percent after a crash of some kind. This rule is apparently a sufficient but not a necessary condition of buying because numerous other buy points on her chart don't involve this rule at all. So IF you hadn't already committed funds because of other rules, you MIGHT have been able to buy then.
Later in the book, on the basis of a breadth-based rule about the Dow 30, the author erases the September 2001 buy signal and records a buy signal for her system on July 19, 2002, near the ultimate bottom of the bear market. This is based on the fact that all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks declined on the same day. I see IN RETROSPECT why she did this, but how would you have known in September 2001 to wait for the later buy signal? The author does not address these kinds of questions at all, as far as I can tell. As I said, frustrating and disappointing.
There may be value in Ms. Weir's concepts, but she has far to go if her aim is to develop a rigorous market timing system, in my opinion.
EXCELLENT !!! THE BEST INVESTING BOOK I EVER READ........2006-12-13
THIS BOOK IS GREAT ! NOT ONLY TELLS YOU WHY BUT ALSO GIVE THE FACTS AND SHOW TO YOU HOW YOU CAN READ THE MARKET AS THE PROFESSIONAL MONEY MANAGERS DO IT ALL THE TIME. YOU ALWAYS WANT TO BE IN THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MARKET, THIS BOOK TEACHED ME HOW TO DO IT. THANK YOU DEBORAH !!!
Lcsmith.......2006-07-13
This one's so interesting it's a bit scary goes to show you how much study has been done to control the heard, charts on death rates and the economy, birth rates, divorces on and on even how we like women to look during good times and bad.Nothing here on short term trading but the guys your trading against know what color your toothbrush is.And they do want your your childs college money just in case you don't really realize that yet.To be honest I haven't finished this yet but I did skim through it It's a long read ....Good book for presidential cycle holds.Debra is simply amazing what she must know
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